Week 195: What does a healthy Toronto Real Estate market even look like?

Available listings continue to pull back aggressively across the board as we approach the Holiday season.

Which is very nice to see as some people were getting worried. Who was getting worried? Me! And a lot of other real estate agents and property owners.

Sure, most don’t need to sell, but the fact that even the on-paper value of your asset is down is seriously anxiety-inducing.

It creates problems everywhere else, and people’s ability to make strong financial decisions comes into question. Some people panic, others try other ways to cope with these unrealized losses. Whatever their poison, this type of market creates an uneasy, uncertain feeling in the air.

So it’s very good to see the market reacting normally right now.

But the market is far from average right now.

There’s really not one way to describe what’s happening in house and condo land.

No two buyers have the same experience, and no “guru” is going to be able to answer all of your questions.

We’ve been used to an extreme Seller’s market for a decade, so when people ask, “When’s the market going to recover?” They often mean, when will it be a Seller’s market again?

So, it’s essential to define what a “normal” or “healthy” market looks like so we can actually see it when it presents itself.

The market we’re coming out of is just as unhealthy as the one we’re in now.

An aggressive Seller’s market and whatever you want to call today’s market do have a lot more in common than you realize.

In both cases, buyers and sellers have a ton of uncertainty.

However, the uncertainty for Sellers is more of an “I wonder how much more than we need we’re going to get” lol vs. today “holy shit, are we even going to be able to sell this place and get our money back” type of convo.

Both cause stress, but more so for the Buyer in the former scenario and today, more so for the Seller and the existing homeowner.

Uncertainty is never good and is never healthy. Humans do whatever they can to avoid uncertainty in our daily lives, which is why many buyers are on the fence at the moment.

The future is so uncertain economically that many are paralyzed in indecision. But you can see moments of brightness as people ride the waves of positive news cycles that provide some certainty.

So I’m looking forward to 2024, where I think we’ll have a lot more certainty around interest rates, and as we close out 2024, we won’t even be talking about inflation anymore.

I don’t think we’ll ever get back to the sales madness of COVID days, and as we begin to compare current weeks/months with previous non-peak markets, we’ll start to see a lot more calmness out there.

It’s easy to get all riled up when comparing today’s market to the peak, but as I’ve said before, it’s time to move off the peak comparison and start to look at the consistency the market has shown since the “dead cat bounce” of Q1 2023.

What are your plans or thoughts?

Book a strategy call here to discuss your next best move forward.

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Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,398,419
House Median Price: $1,275,000
636 Active Listings
37 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) 3.15 – UP from 2.99
Average Days on Market (DOM) 22.14

Condo Average Price: $825,377
Condo Median Price: $710,000
2572 Active Listings
83 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 5.11 – UP from 4.82
DoM 34.48

Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $2,043,286
House Median Price: $1,760,000
193 Active Listings
7 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 4.58 – DOWN from 4.71
DoM ~ 23.71

Condo Average Price: $1,091,875
Condo Median Price: $812,500
295 Active Listings
8 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 5.21 – UP from 4.94
DoM 50.50

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,009,357
House Median Price: $2,089,000
64 Active Listings
8 Firm Sales This Week
MoI: 2.89 – UP from 2.75
DoM 20.43

Condo Average Price: $707,500
Condo Media Price: $625,000
209 Active Listings
8 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 4.24 – UP from 3.64
DoM ~ 28.63

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,055,900
House Median Price: $840,000
39 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 2.14 – DOWN from 2.38
DoM 10.8

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,138,127
House Median Price: $1,002,510
111 Active Listings
6 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.42 – UP from 3.30
DoM 14

Condo Average Price: $835,000
Condo Median Price: $835,000
71 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.23 – UP from 2.72
DoM 75

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