Week 197: What’s going to happen this Spring? Beyond Blame and Politics in Toronto’s Market

It’s not Justin Trudeu’s fault that real estate is expensive. It’s also not his nor the federal government’s fault that inflation happened. Not sure if you all remember, but COVID-19 happened, and money needed to be spent.

Unfortunately, we humans cannot be trusted to make rational decisions, so to avoid talking about our feelings, we all started spending money, causing inflation to go out of control.

Businesses also can’t be trusted, and they gauged people whenever they could.

So here we are.

Plus, most of the issues people are complaining about are Provincial!

I always get a good laugh when a realtor or anyone goes off on some sort of EFF JT rant when they’re talking about Provincial issues…lol indeed!

Who’s fault is it, anyway?

Some will say it’s Justine Trudeau’s dad for introducing liberal immigration policies in the 60’s. And you may be right. More people equals more demand for housing, and things get expensive.

If people didn’t want to be here, we wouldn’t have many of our housing issues. But the reason a lot of the world wants to be here is the same reason we all love it here. Well, most of us, anyway.

But is it really that simple?

I don’t think so.

There’s a reason people want to be here; unless that changes, this is the future of cities like Toronto. But of course, we all know that prices don’t just continue to go up and don’t look back.

Far from the truth!

But looking long term, it’s hard to visualize a scenario where real estate in Toronto is less expensive ten years from now than it is today.

Do you?

But the market in Toronto is doing exactly what it should be doing right now. And by “the market,” I mean you and I. Sellers (aka you maybe) aren’t panicking and pulling their properties off market.

Those that remain are selling if priced right.

Supply is getting VERY low; if this continues, I can see a scenario in the Winter that could benefit some opportunistic Sellers.

Because as expected, last wednesday, the BoC held rates and fixed rates started to come down. Why? Variable-rate mortgages are funded by short-term money, and fixed-rate mortgages are financed by long-term money like Bonds.

I won’t get into the nitty gritty of Bond Prices vs. Bond Yields but here’s a great explainer here.

Combined with talk of rate reductions in 2024, you have a recipe for certainty, and we all know what certainty leads to. It leads to sales.

So we’ll see how that plays out and if any external economic forces come in to slap us back to reality.

What do you think?

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Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,488,289
House Median Price: $1,265,000
495 Active Listings
43 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) 2.32 – DOWN from 3.15
Average Days on Market (DOM) 19.6

Condo Average Price: $764,705
Condo Median Price: $666,000
2246 Active Listings
62 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 4.49 – DOWN from 5.11
DoM 33.89

Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $3,513,929
House Median Price: $3,700,000
154 Active Listings
7 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.93- DOWN from 4.58
DoM ~ 23

Condo Average Price: $1,202,100
Condo Median Price: $840,000
259 Active Listings
8 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 4.79 – DOWN from 5.21
DoM 28.13

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $1,913,560
House Median Price: $1,832,800
50 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI: 2.18 – DOWN from 2.89
DoM 16.2

Condo Average Price: $640,313
Condo Media Price: $577,500
190 Active Listings
8 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.67- DOWN from 4.24
DoM ~ 28.50

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $963,000
House Median Price: $870,000
28 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 1.87 – DOWN from 2.14
DoM 28

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,323,500
House Median Price: $1,323,500
97 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.06 – DOWN from 3.42
DoM 35

Condo Average Price: $640,000
Condo Median Price: $640,000
75 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.61 – UP from 3.23
DoM 22

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