05 Dec 2023

Week 196: Toronto Real Estate: How This Rarely Discussed Stat Affects You as a Buyer or Seller

Week 196: Toronto Real Estate: How This Rarely Discussed Stat Affects You as a Buyer or Seller

Why isn’t anyone paying attention to MoI or Months of Inventory?

It’s the most underrated real estate stat that exists. All communities with the exception of condos along the Kingston Rd corridor (I explain in more detail in the YouTube video), saw a significant reduction in the MoI stat.

What does that mean?

Two things:

  1. It means that the market is reacting normally to the approach to the Holidays
  2. It means that owners aren’t panic-selling en masse

I take a lot of comfort in this, and so should you.

This is also why there’s sometimes a surprise Seller’s market in the heat of the Holidays. Some buyers need to buy, and they have fewer options as the weeks pass. So then we get some random competition when most assume the market is tranquil.

It can happen, and it may happen this season, so be prepared.

You’ll notice that I don’t often talk about average prices on this blog.

Sometimes, you’ll find me discussing median price as that’s a more accurate measure of the middle of the market. Median price gives us a window into the market’s direction and is less susceptible to variations on either end of the data set.

The average price is often skewed by a big ticket sale or a flurry of entry-level sales in any given week.

Especially since we’re dealing with such small data sets here, it’s often better to zoom out and look at the numbers over a given period to get a better understanding of where the market is and where it’s heading.

This is why I love focussing on supply and then looking at MoI at month’s end.

Gives us a much better understanding of what’s happening out there and helps us (and you) understand the actual state of the market to help you make the best possible decision.

Of course, you can’t day trade real estate, but our data gets you pretty close.

So it’s great to see supply pulling back, but another thing that nobody is talking about is the “non-seller” effect.

Some sellers aren’t real sellers.

This means that, because of the already dwindling supply, a percentage of owners on the market aren’t genuinely motivated and aren’t willing to meet the market where it is today.

So, that means the “real” listing supply number is lower. Options are fewer.

There’s some more certainty around the future of rates now, too.

Many experts are confident that tomorrow’s announcement will be another rate hold with a note that the government will continue to tighten the reigns to battle inflation.

But now, there’s a lot of talk from all levels and all angles speculating the start of the rate drops in mid-2024 ahead of achieving the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target.
As a buyer, you should still be cautious and benefit from the lessons learned by overzealous buyers during the COVID years and leave some gas in the tank when making offers. That emergency fund should not be part of the real estate purchase, and if you don’t have an emergency fund, you shouldn’t be buying real estate.

Sellers, you may be surprised by the activity you get on your property in the coming weeks. If you need to sell and had trouble selling previously, a window could open for you soon. Keep an eye on this blog, and if you need real time updates, book a strategy call below to set that up for yourself.

Namaste, and have a good day!

Book a strategy call here to discuss your next best move forward.

You can subscribe to this weekly newsletter here.

And finally, you can subscribe to Real Estate Raccoons on YouTube, where you’ll get to see my fresh face every single Tuesday.

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,733,982
House Median Price: $1,388,000
540 Active Listings
43 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) 2.32 – DOWN from 3.15
Average Days on Market (DOM) 24.74

Condo Average Price: $833,596
Condo Median Price: $700,000
2359 Active Listings
61 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 4.49 – DOWN from 5.11
DoM 29.43

Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $3,578,000
House Median Price: $2,888,000
179 Active Listings
9 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.93- DOWN from 4.58
DoM ~ 28.56

Condo Average Price: $1,618.760
Condo Median Price: $1,451,500
279 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 4.79 – DOWN from 5.21
DoM 31.08

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,578,889
House Median Price: $2,572,778
60 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
MoI: 2.18 – DOWN from 2.89
DoM 22.75

Condo Average Price: $906,083
Condo Media Price: $742,500
195 Active Listings
6 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.67- DOWN from 4.24
DoM ~ 18.33

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $2,578,889
House Median Price: $840,000
33 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 1.87 – DOWN from 2.14
DoM 10.8

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,323,500
House Median Price: $1,323,500
105 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.06 – DOWN from 3.42
DoM 35

Condo Average Price: $744,500
Condo Median Price: $740,000
76 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.61 – UP from 3.23
DoM 41.75

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