Week 192: Toronto’s Market Alert: Real Estate Sales Plunge to a 28-Year Low – What’s Next?

Breaking records in the wrong direction…Toronto real estate sales lowest since 1995.

There were a few months during 1999 and early 2000s that were around the same number, but even the 2008 financial crisis had more sales of houses and condos than this past October.

4649 Sales on our MLS system this October compared to 4961 in October 2022 is similar.

As I’ve said in previous reports leading up to this one, I’ve felt pretty strongly that Q4 of 2023 will close out like we did last year.

So far, the numbers support that.

All except new listing supply.

New Listings are up dramatically across the board. But there could be some good news there, as we’ve had two consecutive weeks of supply pulling back (4 of the last five weeks).

So, what does a typical month of sales look like? I went through the last 30 years of monthly sales activity this morning, so you don’t have to 🙂

Since the 90s (with a few exceptions), we’ve seen 6000-9000 monthly sales.

And in 2020, when everyone was buying and selling houses like trading cards, we maxed out at nearly 11,000 sales that October

So sales are down dramatically when compared to the insanity of 2020 but not quite as dramatic when compared to previous Octobers. With a few exceptions, of course.

But I don’t have my head in the sand here. We’re going through some serious turmoil right now, with a ton of uncertainty heading into Winter.

But who’s buying real estate right now? Despite the uncertainty in the air?

Lots of upsizers are making huge moves right now. Sure, you sell low, but the larger, turn-key homes in prime communities were the ones you read about in BlogTO back in the day that were selling for obscene numbers.

Numbers only made sense at 0% rates, which we had during COVID.

So many who wanted to upsize just couldn’t make it happen. The competition was too fierce, and prices were sky-high.

Although rates are much higher today, those homes are still wildly unaffordable for most; they’re not much more accessible to upsizers sitting on a bunch of equity, even at today’s lower values. Combined with less competition (in most places), that creates a perfect scenario for a smoother, more predictable transaction.

Even condos are selling despite the pile-on of supply.

You have to look at where the supply is vs. just looking at the big picture.

With 5697 condos on the market in all of Toronto, 65% are $800K or less, which are usually investor-owned and make up a ton of Toronto’s rental supply. So, if you’re a buyer and have a budget of $800K or less, then you should have a lot of wiggle room off of the asking price you see (you should…but not all Sellers are equally motivated)

We’re still seeing a ton of competition on larger condos (that are reasonably priced) that would work for families or folks downsizing from their local homes.

Remember just this one thing. This market is not the same across the board. You must paint it with a different brush. Many people are struggling out there and are going to lose their homes. You’ll see content creators online highlighting these events and trying to tell you that everything is tanking.

Take all of that with a grain of salt and reach out so we can talk about your specific situation. I’ll probably try to talk you out of selling (but will create a strong plan if you need to sell)

There are three ways you can take the next step.

You can book a strategy call here to discuss your next best move forward

You can subscribe to this weekly newsletter here

And finally, you can subscribe to Real Estate Raccoons on YouTube, where you’ll get to see my fresh face every single Tuesday.

Keep an eye on this blog, as the coming months will be exciting.

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,369,116
House Median Price: $1,225,000
730 Active Listings
40 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) 3.15 – UP from 2.99
Average Days on Market (DOM) 13.28

Condo Average Price: $832,787
Condo Median Price: $665,000
2710 Active Listings
69 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 5.11 – UP from 4.82
DoM 24.65

Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $5,224,800
House Median Price: $3,487,500
209 Active Listings
10 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 4.58 – DOWN from 4.71
DoM ~ 8.1

Condo Average Price: $1,066,111
Condo Median Price: $740,000
302 Active Listings
6 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 5.21 – UP from 4.94
DoM 33.22

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $1,847,500
House Median Price: $1,847,500
79 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
MoI: 2.89 – UP from 2.75
DoM 15

Condo Average Price: $932,378
Condo Media Price: $900,000
222 Active Listings
9 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 4.24 – UP from 3.64
DoM ~ 13.67

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,445,000
House Median Price: $1,445,000
36 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 2.14 – DOWN from 2.38
DoM 3

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,180,000
House Median Price: $1,047,000
119 Active Listings
6 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.42 – UP from 3.30
DoM 20.17

Condo Average Price: $428,098
Condo Median Price: $431,197
69 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.23 – UP from 2.72
DoM 32.25

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