12 Sep 2023

Week 184: Listing supply surges as sales tank. Dark days ahead for Toronto Real Estate.

Introduction

As week 184 unfolds, the Toronto real estate market casts a shadow as ominous as the city’s skyline. We find ourselves at a crucial point with listing supply escalating and concerns over global economic influences. This week, I aim to dissect the complexities of the current market, offering data-driven insights and actionable advice for both buyers and sellers.

I think we’re in for a bumpy couple of months. I’ve never seen this many new listings hit the market in one week since I started reporting 184 weeks ago.

Honestly, I think we’re gonna start seeing some price adjustments in the coming weeks, with only 17 house sales last week; granted it was a shorter week, but it’s not normal to have sales this low, even lower than the last week of summer time

Things are not really getting too much cheaper out there, and I suspect inflation is going to stay high for a little bit longer if there is another rate increase in October, you can pretty much say goodbye to the Toronto real estate market for the short term Not to be overly dramatic, but that is a reality we face in the coming months So now is as important as ever to make sure that you do not panic self and do whatever you can to hang onto your property. Of course, I appreciate that your monthly payments have spiked dramatically, and some people are just going to have to sell.
Hopefully, this is a lesson learned for all of those realtors who were going on and on about how rare hikes are done in the markets going to pop off again, not realizing that the last halt resulted in the market popping off, rates were much lower, and there was more certainty in the air.

The Surge in Listings: A New Milestone
Statistics: In the past week alone, house listings saw a 20.8% uptick, while condo listings increased by 10.8%.
Context: This level of supply is akin to the early days of COVID-19 when panic initially gripped the market.

The Elusive Price Adjustments: When Will They Happen?
Current State: Despite the surge in listings, prices remain stubbornly stable.
Projection: Expect to see price adjustments in the coming weeks, especially with a mere 17 house sales last week.

The Global Ripple Effect: China’s Crisis
The International Link: Developments in China’s real estate market are beginning to impact Toronto.
Implications: The ripple effects of global crises underline the challenges and opportunities of Toronto being a world-class city.

Inflation and Interest Rates: The Double-Edged Sword
Inflation: High inflation rates are expected to persist.
Interest Rates: If there’s another rate hike in October, it could spell short-term trouble for the Toronto market.

Buyer’s Roadmap: Investment vs. Lifestyle
Advice: Continue your purchase journey, but leave some financial buffer. It’s not just an investment; it’s a lifestyle choice.

The Mortgage Dilemma: Fixed vs Variable
Considerations: Think about your short-term plans and potential cost implications before choosing your mortgage type.

Conclusion
The Toronto real estate market is a complicated ecosystem influenced by both local and global events. As we traverse these turbulent times, keeping a steady hand and making informed decisions is vital.

Book a Consultation: Book a call directly with me for personalized advice.

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Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas

House Average Price: $1,757,729
House Median Price: $1,437,500
537 Active Listings
17 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) 1.82- DOWN from 1.92 last month
Average Days on Market (DOM) 20.24

Condo Average Price: $829,640
Condo Median Price: $710,500
2270 Active Listings
62 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.87- DOWN  from  3.91 last month
DoM  30.18

Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park

House Average Price: $2,310,800
House Median Price: $2,295,000
159 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 2.78 – UP from 2.69 last month
DoM ~ 16.2

Condo Average Price: $1,431,750
Condo Median Price: $839,000
229 Active Listings
8 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 3.48 DOWN from 3.64 last month
DoM ~ 26.63

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton

House Average Price: $3,170,000
House Median Price: $3,170,000
62 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.45 – DOWN from 1.59
DoM  1

Condo Average Price: $784,600
Condo Media Price: $720,000
175 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 2.82 DOWN  from 3.04  last mth
DoM ~ 20.9

Birch Cliff

House Average Price: $770,000
House Median Price: $770,000
42 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 2.03 UP from 1.69
DoM 4.5

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek

House Average Price: $1,540,500
House Median Price: $1,540,500
102 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 2.53 DOWN from 2.59
DoM 20.33

Condo Average Price: $421,333
Condo Median Price: $455,000
63 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 2.58 DOWN from 2.80
DoM ~ 30.67

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