Week 165: Urban Condo Supply Dips by 15%, Fueling Sales Spike and Intensifying Competition: How This Shift May Impact the Housing Market

Buckle up, condo buyers; things are getting heated out there.

After a couple of weeks of condos getting better supplied, we have a massive, nearly 15% drop in condo supply in urban communities and a less dramatic decrease in all other communities.

Houses, on the other hand, added in supply across the board.

With 155 condo sales in Toronto’s urban communities, this week marks the biggest sales week since mid-2020.

So this answers the “what’s happening in the condo market” some agents who aren’t as in tune with data as we are here at the spring team.

Condo buyers are all reporting big competition and multiple offers, with even some assignment sales selling for more than expected. Not across the board, but in some end user-friendly development, assignments are now selling for more than a few months ago.

Good news for anyone looking to sell a condo and upgrade into a house, as I can see competition growing less fierce in some communities as we head into the summer.

If we see another week or so of house supply increasing, we can almost guarantee the Summer lull I’ve been discussing.

And buy lull, maybe 2 or 3 offers vs. 25.

Don’t get me wrong, houses are still flying and will for the next few weeks at least, so you’re not out of time to take advantage as a seller. But as supply adds, it’ll balance the market by Summer if we continue at this pace.

We don’t have another rate announcement till June 7th, so we’re good to go, at least until then. June 7th is a key date here as we may learn how cutting oil production has affected gas prices and slowed deflation. But considering other items that have been propping up inflation are declining, I think it’ll balance things out, and we’ll see marginal deflation and the continuation of buyer activity.

Also important to look at May 10th, when the FED in the US releases their April CPI numbers, to give us an idea of what might happen here, north of the border.

Now, as the market is heating up again, it’s important to remember that you didn’t miss the boat if you weren’t on the dock in the first place. Does that even make sense?

I don’t want you to feel bad because you decided to wait for things to be more certain.

As I’ve said before, down markets are paralyzing for a good reason. You never know if it’s the bottom.

How can you tell? Some say it’s impossible. But there are indicators.

Sales activity is my gauge for when we’re bottoming out. Not necessarily the average price.

Sales were at an all-time low in November and December of 2022. But by the end of January, we had two weeks of sales picking up week over week.

And you know what I always say, if we see three weeks of movement one way or another, it usually signals a trend. So by mid-Feb, I had officially called that the bottom of the market was behind us.

Some took that to mean it’s all uphill from here.

Which couldn’t be further from the truth. But the bottom of this cycle was behind us.

This is why weekly reporting matters so much. Monthly stats are way too late. Not real-time and not a reflection of what’s happening right now.

I was at a wedding last weekend. I was seated at a table with a very successful lawyer and investor. But he has hadn’t been in the market for a long time.

He asked me when the defaults are coming so he can scoop some up. I had some bad news for him! I said, let’s time travel to December, and you can buy everything at a 10-20% discount.

He was surprised! As a matter of fact, mortgage defaults came down from the peak of 0.6% Canada-wide.

So, for now, banks are working with people by extending amortizations (oh, the drama people online love this as they show you “Hey look, it’ll take you 96yrs to pay off your home, and buying is a terrible investment” narrative!

Also, those “here’s how long you need to save to buy a place in Toronto” pieces of content that are absolutely infuriating! They always assume a 20% down on the average price downtown. Very few first-time buyers put down 20% and jump into a $1mm property.

Also, please don’t @ me for saying this, but homeownership in major city centres isn’t a God-given right. Times have changed, and Toronto is different.

As a first-timer, it’s ok to rent here. So don’t listen to those “rent vs. buy” people either. There’s no shame in the renting game.

But if you’ve saved up $20-30K, you can start with an entry-level property in a different market and build up from there.

That’s what I did in 2017.

Not sure if you know this about me, but I’m starting to feel more comfortable talking about this.

In 2016, when my Daughter was born, I made terrible business decisions that cost me a LOT. Practically every penny I had.

I had to sell my house and all.

I couldn’t afford to get back into the market, and I felt like a complete failure.

I found a small, run-down cottage and bought it with $15K down for $200K. I saved another 9K and fixed it up. I rented it for a year on Airbnb, then sold it.

I flipped that profit into a pre-construction condo for my family—a nice three-bed in Canary District.

Then sold that to buy the dream home we live in today.

None of that would have been possible if I had become a victim and complained that I couldn’t afford Toronto.

I can show you how to do this today, so message me if you want to get into your dream home in 5 years or less. I have a blueprint for you.

Anyway, that’s all for today. Happy reading, and I’ll see you out there.

Have a wonderful day, and I’ll see you next week. Don’t forget to subscribe to the blog so you get this in your inbox asap, and we’ll see you on Youtube!

(please subscribe to the YouTube Channel here, where I go over all of these reports in more detail)

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,680,293
House Median Price: $1,535,000
432 Active Listings
77 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.69 (up from 1.38 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 13.20

Condo Average Price: $880,653
Condo Median Price: $750,000
1219 Active Listings
155 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.67 (up from 2.41 last month)
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 20.34

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $2,825,990
House Median Price: $2,765,000
139 Active Listings
20 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.40 (up from 2.20 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 19.4

Condo Average Price: $1,436,067
Condo Median Price: $1,015,000
226 Active Listings
13 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 3.76 (up from 3.17 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 19

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,610,831
House Median Price: $2,550,000
34 Active Listings
13 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.14 (up from 1.05)
Average Days on Market  7

Condo Average Price: $795,224
Condo Median Price: $717,500
119 Active Listings
22 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.56 (up from 2.43 last mth)
Average Days on Market ~ 15

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,430,833
House Median Price: $1,247,000
25 Active Listings
0 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.05 (up from 1.02)
Average Days on Market ~ 18

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,333,667
House Median Price: $1,112,500
64 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.66 (up from 1.16)
Average Days on Market ~ 10

Condo Average Price: $531,188
Condo Median Price: $510,000
44 Active Listings
7 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.76 (up from 2.29)
Average Days on Market ~ 20

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