Week 161: OPEC’s Decision to Cut Oil Production Could Prolongue High Rate Environment for Canadians

Some may not even be aware of what’s happening globally, assuming our market is back to the normal frenzy we’ve been experiencing for the past decade.

That may be the case, but we have recent news from abroad, specifically, OPEC’s decision to cut oil production, which will likely result in increased energy costs, further propping up inflation which could put more upward pressure on interest rates.

This high-interest rate environment may be here for longer than we think.

But many buyers today aren’t buying, assuming their rates will be cut in half by the time they close. Well, at least I hope not! But it’s scary how some agents talk about this market like there’s nothing to worry about.

If you’re anything like me, you’re an eternal optimist. You always look for the good news, the opportunity, the silver lining.

That’s not how I’ve always been, but the more I surround myself with success, the more I see this trait in others.

Moving forward with caution, there is a possibility of some slower times ahead if inflation numbers start to go in the wrong direction.

Which is very well possible

But let’s look at the sales numbers from last week.

All the listing supply added last week was fully absorbed, and then some.

Supply in all communities pulled back, and sales shot through the roof with the biggest condo sales boom since the Covid real estate boom.

If you look at the Months of Inventory stat, naturally, it’s up, but that’s finally a reflection of a full year of extremely low sales numbers. Today’s MoI numbers genuinely reflect where we stand in terms of supply.

We should see MoI drop after we average in bigger sales months like March and April in the coming months, assuming sales continue at this pace.

So what does this mean?

For buyers, it means that you compete most of the time for houses and about 49% of the time for condos.

It means discounts are entirely off the table unless you buy an assignment.

For Sellers, this market presents a substantial opportunity for a big sale with a more predictable timeline. So get to market asap before things lull, like they inevitably will.

As we head into a Lull, I predict by the summer months; people will start talking about “the market tanking” and the next correction,

Ignore that noise because the fall will pick up again unless inflation becomes a massive problem due to increased energy costs. But we’ll have to see how that plays out before making firm predictions.

Look at the charts and numbers below, and send us your comments!

We have an unbeatable listing program here at the Spring Team, so if you’re considering selling, let us bid for the job. But we don’t compete on price, so if you’re looking for discounted services, you’ll have to look elsewhere.

Have a wonderful day, and I’ll see you next week. Don’t forget to subscribe to the blog so you get this in your inbox asap, and we’ll see you on Youtube!

(please subscribe to the YouTube Channel here, where I go over all of these reports in more detail)

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,678,380
House Median Price: $1,435,000
396 Active Listings
61 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.69 (up from 1.38 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 9.72

Condo Average Price: $792,608
Condo Median Price: $730,000
1374 Active Listings
125 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.67 (up from 2.41 last month)
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 16.03

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $3,130,365
House Median Price: $2,650,000
108 Active Listings
17 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.40 (up from 2.20 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 15.12

Condo Average Price: $1,143,980
Condo Median Price: $1,051,000
201 Active Listings
9 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 3.76 (up from 3.17 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 26

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,098,333
House Median Price: $2,237,500
32 Active Listings
6 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.14 (up from 1.05)
Average Days on Market  19

Condo Average Price: $1,055,500
Condo Median Price: $882,500
122 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.56 (up from 2.43 last mth)
Average Days on Market ~ 17

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,148,929
House Median Price: $950,000
17 Active Listings
7 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.05 (up from 1.02)
Average Days on Market ~ 8

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,531,317
House Median Price: $1,243,000
60 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.66 (up from 1.16)
Average Days on Market ~ 13

Condo Average Price: $538,000
Condo Median Price: $527,000
50 Active Listings
0 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.76 (up from 2.29)
Average Days on Market ~ 21

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