Week 159: Navigating the Toronto Housing Market: Cutting Through the Noise Amid Economic Volatility

Stats Can reported the February 2023 CPI numbers, aka inflation report, that everyone has been waiting for. You can read that here.

Be careful reading headlines today on the back of what might seem like positive inflation news, with headlines talking about “The greatest deceleration since April 2020”.

We’re down and down dramatically if you look at the reported Year over Year inflation numbers.

But you have to consider the Base Year Effect.

You can learn more about what the Base Effect is here.

So if you hear a Realtor say, “good news, inflation is down,” you must find another realtor. There’s more to the headline.

If you hear the doomsday Realtor says, “Woah, banks are collapsing; this is just like 2008”, you need to find another Realtor. This is not nearly as bad as 2008 (maybe more like 1998).

Ignorance and headline scanning are not how things work anymore.

To serve you at the highest level, we, as real estate professionals, must take the time and do the work to become globally and economically aware to understand WHY everything is happening.

Understand that headlines elicit some emotion to get you to read more.

So do that.

Read more

Ask questions

Do the work

Then form an opinion.

Hopefully, this blog has helped you do that.

Cut through the noise and nonsense of what anyone with a TikTok account and an iPhone is spewing.

As Buyers in Toronto today, you’ve likely noticed a severe uptick in activity.

You’re probably in competition with most houses you’re going after

And if you’re in the condo market, you probably see more pressure with offer nights and higher sale prices than expected.

That’s very real today. Buyers are excited by what they think is a calmer economic environment, and they’re making bigger-than-expected financial decisions today.

Much like in the heat of the market in Feb 2022, Buyers need not go all out and max out their mortgage approvals today.

This is one of the most unpredictable economies we’ve experienced in a long time.

Why? Many reports compare year-over-year data, painting a rosier picture than reality.

But in reality, food and shelter are more expensive. Still, some reductions in energy and childcare costs due to regulatory changes in Alberta contributed significantly to the lower inflation numbers.

Toronto is one of the most resilient markets on the planet, so I’m not worried about our future. Still, in the short term, the idea that we’ll experience a “soft landing” by avoiding a recession is likely off the table.

Based on recent events, the likelihood of a Hard Landing into a recession is much more likely now.

So when realtors are talking about, “hey, what great news, fixed rates are coming down,” you have to ask yourself why they’re coming down.

As a client said to me this morning: “it’s one thing for rates to come down as inflation comes down, but fixed rates may come down because people are terrified of the economy and putting their money into the US and Canadian treasuries.”

That’s a very different scenario than what we need/want to happen.

So with all that said, humans will be human so that buyers will be more optimistic about the future. To be a buyer today, you must be ready to compete.

If you’re a seller, you’ve got a golden window to get your money because I feel like there’s a lull coming again. When? I’m unsure, but I can tell you we’re not in another forever upswing now.

Will prices come down? Probably not enough for it to make sense to wait, as we’ve already adjusted quite a bit in some areas from the peak. But we may give back some of the gains of Jan/Feb 2023 in the summer months.

But honestly, as long as sellers continue not to panic and rates jump up again (both very likely scenarios), I don’t see any reason to have any meaningful price changes in 2023.

But we’ll keep an eye on jobs and inflation and put that all into context for you week after week.

I hope you found this valuable, and don’t forget to subscribe on YouTube and the TST Blog 🙂

Have a wonderful day, and I’ll see you next week. Don’t forget to subscribe to the blog so you get this in your inbox asap, and we’ll see you on Youtube!

(please subscribe to the YouTube Channel here, where I go over all of these reports in more detail)

Continue scrolling for charts and numbers for all communities below 🙂

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,426,808
House Median Price: $1,350,000
348 Active Listings
37 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.38 (up from 1.22 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 17.08

Condo Average Price: $819,132
Condo Median Price: $734,000
1367 Active Listings
105 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.41 (up from 2.16 last month)
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 18.79

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $2,255,900
House Median Price: $1,851,000
108 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.20 (up from 1.84 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 36.2

Condo Average Price: $1,534,667
Condo Median Price: $1,200,000
193 Active Listings
9 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 3.17 (up from 2.85 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 49

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $1,746,250
House Median Price: $1,755,000
23 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.05 (down from 1.11)
Average Days on Market ~9

Condo Average Price: $745,693
Condo Median Price: $722,500
122 Active Listings
15 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.43 (up from 2.01 last mth)
Average Days on Market ~ 14

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,031,000
House Median Price: $990,000
16 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.02 (up from 0.74)
Average Days on Market ~ 14.4

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,665,000
House Median Price: $1,470,000
55 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.16 (up from 0.74)
Average Days on Market ~ 10.67

Condo Average Price: $557,000
Condo Median Price: $470,000
47 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.29 (up from 1.81)
Average Days on Market ~ 17.2

 

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