Week 150: Flood of new listings potentially signalling another correction

Here come the listings! Buyers waiting for fresh listing supply are probably seeing some good newer options as we head deeper into January. We started the month with very little new listing activity, but week over week, this is the first week of noticeable supply being added in months.

Did you catch my article on CP24 on the weekend? Well, not “my” article, but I was quoted anyway. Have a read here.

Some might see this as a sign of desperate sellers trying to get out of their holdings before things get worse, but we’ll have to wait a couple of weeks to see if the trend continues. It’s way too early to call anything at the moment.

But looking back at each year since 2019, you can clearly see that Toronto’s markets are generally undersupplied.

(continued after chart)

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,454,917
House Median Price: $1,580,000
302 Active Listings
15 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.94 (down from 1.60 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 35.93

Condo Average Price: $845,943
Condo Median Price: $651,500
1249 Active Listings
30 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.81 (down from 2.24 last month)
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 27.47

Drilling down into specific communities, it seems as though Leaside, Davisville and surrounding communities are the safest bet in Toronto and are chronically undersupplied in all freehold property types. So if you can get yourself up in that $2mm plus price range, and are extremely risk-averse, then Leaside and surrounding communities are your safest bet.

The moment we get some good news from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Government, we’ll have a pop in buyer activity with no supply to handle it. There won’t be any warning or time to prepare; the good news will hit, buyers will immediately return to the offer table, and competition will be back.

That’s why I’m constantly going on about getting into the market when nobody else is. The window of opportunity for less competition (although there were 20 offers on a house in Thornhill last night (listed at $1.4mm and sold for who knows how much) is currently open and should be for a while. Still, please understand that some houses in some communities are getting all of the attention.
(continued after chart)

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $1,444,000
House Median Price: $1,444,000
91 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.65 (down from 2.62 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 23

Condo Average Price: $2,850,000
Condo Median Price: $2,850,000
165 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.14 (down from 2.84 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 19

How do you tell which home will go nuts? Look at the school district, look at the amount of supply in the immediate area (see why GTA stats or overall national stats don’t matter?), look at the showing activity, and look at what happened to recent sales. There’s so much data and many variables to consider to intelligently and efficiently participate in a market like this. It’s more important than ever to be working with a seriously skilled real estate agent with a strong team of leaders behind them.

Real estate is no joke, but sadly, many treat it as one.

We like to have a lot of fun at The Spring Team, but at the end of the day, we’re a team of the city’s most educated, experienced, and competent agents. This is not debatable, regardless of who sells more than us or less. Time will show you that our buyer systems and listings processes are unmatched in the marketplace. (continued after chart)

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $1,638,333
House Median Price: $1,650,000
28 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.75 (down from 0.91)
Average Days on Market ~25.33

Condo Average Price: $930,250
Condo Median Price: $854,000
106 Active Listings
6 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.61 (down from 2.52 last mth)
Average Days on Market ~ 26

Anyway, enough pumping our tired, let’s get back to the market.

If you’re anything like me, you’re an optimist and understand that there’s a massive bright light at the end of this down-market tunnel. You can choose to focus on the one-off tales of a buyer not being able to close, the group of pre-construction buyers who are underwater on day 1 of their investment, or the family who had their house sold out from under them by an unscrupulous fraudster, OR you can decide that those are not tales of the entire market and lean into the fact that the worlds wealthiest people are building and buying right now. Not the opposite, so please ensure you’re getting advice from people who are ten steps ahead of you, not ten steps behind.

Over the past 15 years, I’ve seen too many would-be buyers not follow through on a deal because their dentist, uncle, boyfriend, etc.. gave them terrible advice. (continued after chart)

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,030,000
House Median Price: $1,065,000
14 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.89 (down from 1.01)
Average Days on Market ~ 19.3

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,401,250
House Median Price: $1,240,000
28 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.54 (down from 1.21)
Average Days on Market ~ 30

Condo Average Price: $473,750
Condo Median Price: $485,000
41 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.63 (down from 2.30)
Average Days on Market ~ 29

That’s all for this week! Looking forward to next week’s bank of Canada announcement and hope to have the predictable 25bps increase and nothing more! I was on a call with an economist from BMO yesterday and he also agreed that there should be a 25bps increase in January and another 25bps increase in March and that should be it, but we’ll have to watch and see what the unemployment numbers and inflations numbers look like to be sure.

Stay tuned and have a lovely Tuesday!

Any questions? The entire team and I are here to help. Email/comment/text/smoke signal, and we’ll get back to you.

Have a wonderful day, and I’ll see you next week. Don’t forget to subscribe to the blog so you get this in your inbox asap, and we’ll see you on Youtube!

(please subscribe to the YouTube Channel here, where I go over all of these reports in more detail)

 

Share: