Week 146: Surviving the Storm: Here’s what really happening in Toronto Real Estate


June 2022 is an extremely significant month for Toronto Real Estate. Why? That’s when owners decided to stop panicking and take their properties off the market.

Both house and condo supply peaked at the end of June 2022. You can see for yourself here.

Nearly 2000 condo listings and 625 house listings at the time. But why all the listings?

Before June 2022, we had seen only a 1.25% overall rate increase, but rate increases were new to people, so the temporary panic was understandable. But the good news is after people weren’t getting their desired results, they just pulled their properties off the market and enjoyed their lives, which is what most rational people are doing.

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,345,105
House Median Price: $1,287,500
364 Active Listings
22 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.60 (down from 1.78 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 26.86

Condo Average Price: $799,473
Condo Median Price: $709,000
1341 Active Listings
47 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.24 (down from 2.25 last month)
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 27.81

Since June 28th, 2022, we’ve had a further 2.75% in rate increases for a total of 4% in increases.

So the worst of the increases came after June 2022, so you’d assume that’s also when the market would have been most flooded with panicked, overleveraged homeowners who were on the verge of defaulting on their commitments.

Of course, it’s essential to consider that the significant effects of these hikes will take some time to materialize fully. That’s an important consideration as we head into a recession, and unemployment numbers will be a concern. Let’s hope that most of the cuts and layoffs are limited to a few bloated tech firms.

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $2,886,667
House Median Price: $2,350,000
105 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.62 (down from 2.78 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 12.33

Condo Average Price: $1,400,000
Condo Median Price: $1,400,000
172 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.84 (down from 3.04 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 5

Will we see significant layoffs across all industries? Not likely. Interestingly, while these huge companies are considering layoffs, small to medium-sized businesses are in hiring mode. The Spring Team included. Did this happen during the last major recession? I’m not sure!

I wanted to post some advice for Buyers, Sellers and general real estate enthusiasts.

If you’re a buyer, you need to ask yourself WHY you are a buyer. Are you a buyer because you think great deals are available? Before you even get out there, you must define what a “great deal” means. And you need to have an open conversation with your real estate agent about that. Some extremely low offers are being considered in this market, but we’ve come across some buyers that don’t seem to get that there’s no real panic out there and that exceptional deals are few and far between.

Why?

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $1,732,300
House Median Price: $1,555,000
27 Active Listings
0 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.95 (down from 1.71)
Average Days on Market ~40

Condo Average Price: $780,972
Condo Median Price: $766,944
136 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.52 (up from 2.49 last mth)
Average Days on Market ~ 28.5

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,292,000
House Median Price: $1,292,000
17 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.01 (up from 0.93)
Average Days on Market ~ 7

Because we have no quality supply on the market.

Great deals on fully turn-key homes in the most prime communities aren’t a thing. You’re not going to get that big detached in North Riverdale or Prime Leslieville for a steal right now. You may even find yourself in competition on those ones.

But where you will find a deal is on less-than-ideal properties that buyers don’t have the stomach for. There are properties like this one (the link will expire in 2 weeks) on Highfield street in the Gerrard Bazaar area. It listed at $1.7mm, but if you see the home, you can tell it was a rushed job and doesn’t show as well as it could. So buyers are overlooking it. But if you understand that much of the work that needs to be done is relatively easy, you can get a great deal on this place. How much? How low is too low? On this particular property, you could start as low as $1.35 and see where the negotiation takes you.

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,258,555
House Median Price: $1,065,000
39 Active Listings
7 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.21 (down from 1.45)
Average Days on Market ~ 22.57

Condo Average Price: $484,500
Condo Median Price: $484,500
51 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.30 (down from 2.89)
Average Days on Market ~ 45.5

There are other properties like that, but you must ensure your agent knows which properties have the most flexibility. This is where your Realtor’s network comes into play. (if you’re unsure how the buying process works, you can read it all step by step here).

If you’re considering selling, ask yourself why. Why will you sell in one of the worst Seller’s markets Toronto has seen?

I’ll tell you one thing here, the only people that should be selling are those looking to upgrade. Move-up buyers have a tremendous opportunity to save six figures++ on their move.

My advice to owners would be only to consider selling if you have an immediate use for the funds. Otherwise, hold tight and wait for the market to improve over the next 12-18mths if you want to maximize your return.

That’s all for this week, but I want you to keep my post about real estate info red flags top of mind as we head into the holidays and you spend more time consuming content. Many stories out there strike a nerve to get attention but highlight singular events that aren’t signalling “more to come.”

Any questions? The entire team and I are here to help. Email/comment/text/smoke signal, and we’ll get back to you.

Have a wonderful day, and I’ll see you next week. Don’t forget to subscribe to the blog so you get this in your inbox asap, and we’ll see you on Youtube!

(please subscribe to the YouTube Channel here, where I go over all of these reports in more detail)

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