02 Aug 2022
Week 126: Will House & Condo Prices Drop in 2022?
Week 126: Will House & Condo Prices Drop in 2022?
That’s a good question. When looking at the data, I believe that Toronto real estate will remain relatively stable as we close out the year and should begin to provide Sellers with a smoother experience in the latter half of 2023. Until then, if you don’t need to sell, hold.
Listing supply across the board behaving normally despite the doom and gloom of the recession ahead.
Over the past 5 weeks, we’ve seen urban house supply plummet by just over 20%. Sitting at 511 units available for sale. And Condo supply is down from that peak by 14.34% to 1667 units.
This is normal behaviour in the Summer months and should show you the strength and position of most Toronto Sellers.
If you were waiting for monthly stats to come out, you’d have missed this weekly trend.
In the past, three weeks of upward or downward movement have been a strong signal of what lies ahead.
Does this mean we’ll be heading into a Seller’s market soon?
Probably not. But what it does reaffirm is that Torontonians are level-headed property owners who don’t panic and sell because your favourite online realtor personality told you the sky is falling and somehow convinced the masses that they’re the only ones telling the truth. (continued below chart)
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Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,693,886
House Median Price: $1,400,000
511 Active Listings
41 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.77
Average Days on Market ~ 14.97
Condo Average Price: $744,153
Condo Median Price: $699,000
1667 Active Listings
68 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.16
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 19.28
But make no mistake, many buyers are still quite scared and firmly planted on the bench.
However, those buyers that are brave enough to be out there buying (and there are many) are being rewarded with opportunities galore.
Understanding that real estate is a long-term game, I’d have no problem being a buyer in this market as long as I’m not fully maxing out on my purchase.
Prudent buyers are leaving a bit of a buffer but enjoying much less competition and the ability to negotiate the purchase price. Some Buyers that are a little more cash-heavy are scooping up condo assignments left and right.
Especially those assignments with closings 18-36 months away.
Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $3,138,333
House Median Price: $3,700,000
126 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.30
Average Days on Market ~ 23.67
Condo Average Price: $923,125
Condo Median Price: $845,000
184 Active Listings
8 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.43
Average Days on Market ~ 24
The news has been relatively quiet this week after last week when BMO had captured the majority of the Citys headlines.
I commented on it in last week’s post.
All of the banks have released statements that range from 10% to 20% drops in CANADIAN real estate prices until mid-2023.
But remember, not all cities react the same.
Toronto will not likely see corrections at that level, despite this downturn being pretty aggressive compared to the highs of earlier this year.
Buyers are coming out looking for exceptional deals in the wrong places.
You’re not going to get that fully renovated North Riverdale home at much of a discount today. But you will have access to that less-than-perfect property in other urban communities.
Some homes that had no business trading at over a million are now back down to earth. You can get that entry-level Leslieville starter home for under a million which was impossible Q1 of this year.
In fact, we’ve created a new search tool for you to look up existing properties (like these Leslieville area homes for under $1mm) check it out and let me know what you think. You can even see SOLD data in there, but you have to sign up. (continued below chart)
Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $1,958,000
House Median Price: $1,851,000
43 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.46
Average Days on Market ~ 23.4
Condo Average Price: $683,680
Condo Median Price: $653,500
178 Active Listings
10 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.53
Average Days on Market ~ 14.8
The good news is that Buyers are still buying, and Sellers are mostly holding unless they need to sell. The day trader mentality is slowly eroding, and the level-headed commentary (like ours) is getting a ton more attention.
Inventory in ALL communities we’re tracking is pulling back and has been for 5 weeks. (continued below chart)
So we’re in a pretty healthy state, considering the drama some conversations are bringing up.
In our team meeting this morning, for the first time, our buyer clients are funded and ready to make moves. We’re even seeing some agents reaching out and asking for exclusives. Meaning their buyers can’t find what they want on the MLS. Proving that supply isn’t always meeting Buyer demand which is a refreshing change from May/June.
Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $2,500,000
House Median Price: $2,500,000
28 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.50
Average Days on Market ~ 20
So in the spirit of keeping it light this week as we all try and enjoy the last few weeks of summer, I’ll end with this;
When you read an article like this from the Star, please understand that the story for your house in Toronto’s urban communities may not reflect this broad statement about the entire Canadian market.
Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,118,000
House Median Price: $1,240,000
95 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.82
Average Days on Market ~ 15.67
Condo Average Price: $529,700
Condo Median Price: $477,500
66 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.05
Average Days on Market ~ 15.75
(don’t forget to subscribe to my new YouTube Channel here, where I go over all of these reports in more detail)
Have a terrific Tuesday, and I’ll see you next week 🙂
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That’s all for today; thanks so much for your energy and attention. If you want some clarity on the market and your specific situation, please DM, comment below or email Ara@thespringteam.ca.
