Week 122: The Assignment Market is Flooded with Unbelievable Deals. 

With summer comes the usual slow down. That’s what I didn’t consider during last week’s report when I assumed condo supply would have gone north of 2000 units this week.

That didn’t happen. You know why? Because Toronto homeowners (yes, condos are homes too) aren’t overleveraged panic sellers.

People begin to enjoy their time off (if they’re lucky enough to have any); they’re not thinking about real estate. They’re not thinking about interest rate hikes (the next one’s July 13th, so we’ll see news cycles pick that up next week just to make sure to pop some anxiety into your summer relaxation)

So naturally, we see a pullback in the number of listings available for sale and sales activity drops.

And that’s what tells me the markets I’ve been tracking will be okay.

If we had a market full of over-leveraged panic sellers who are so sensitive to rate changes that they need to sell, we’d have a flood of listings hitting the market ahead of the next hike.

We’d have many new buyers who cannot close on their properties.

We’d have many places go back to market because the original buyer can’t close.

And if you’re online at all, you’ve seen the clickbaity “truth-tellers” absolutely glowing while showing you screenshots of anomalies with these “see, I told ya so” looks on their faces. It is as if they’re enjoying other people’s misery.

But what they’re failing to tell you is the entire story of each of those sales, often misleading you into believing the two sold properties at vastly different prices were exactly the same.

It’s so easy to get caught up in the noise of local anomalies.

But the focus always must be on the long term when talking about real estate.

If you bought a home in early 2022, there’s a chance it’s worth a little less today. But NOT in all cases, and certainly not in all communities.

Some would tell you the Durham market is tanking. But Durham is a vast place. Last night, we had three offers on a well-priced Ajax listing (listed by our newest agent Marsha Baynes!) Sold over asking and over market value.

Buyers are out; if they’re out now, they’re serious.

Remember back in the early Covid days? There were NO showings. But you’d get one showing and one offer. Similar things are happening today.

There was a realtor who mocked me on TikTok a couple of weeks ago. Saying my “you can’t daytrade real estate” line was a marketing tactic to get buyers to buy no matter what was happening. Just to line my pockets.
Still trying to figure out how to address it. Perhaps they’ll read this…who knows. They had the hat and the beard and everything down. Who knows, maybe it wasn’t me. But it was disrespectful and rude. Dead to me now.

Cool, I can’t control you if you take that as simple marketing jargon.

I’ve seen too many people get in the way of fantastic buying decisions because they’re worried about buying at the top or not sure if the bottom is still going to fall out of the market.

Valid concerns, for sure. But if buying is something you want to do, and I think it’s something everyone should strive to do, then you need to consider the bigger picture. You need to look at how the community you’re buying in has performed over the years and how it’s performing now vs other communities.

How resilient is the area your buying in during downturns?
Anyway, to make a long story short, the only real opportunities in the market right now are condo assignments.

Unfortunately, some people have been spooked by the slowdown and are doing whatever they can to unload their pre-construction units.

We should talk if you’re a buyer, investor, or even someone with some cash but never invested before. There are so many opportunities in the assignment market at the moment. So many!

I called one of my regular assignment buyers with an opportunity, and you know what he said? “Sorry, man, but I’m fully deployed at the moment”
This guy has put out seven figures in buying assignments over the past three weeks. He and many others are buying like mad right now.

Do you think they’ll be left holding this bag of useless real estate when they’re completed? Nope. Why do you believe so many investors and end-users were clamouring over each other to get into the Frank Gehry project on King Street called Forma at $1900 per square foot? They’re diversifying their investment portfolios and making a long-term bet on Toronto winning.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, a bet against Toronto long-term is a sure loser.

How’s the market right now, and what does it all mean to you?

This market is the best buying opportunity almost across the board I’ve seen in years.

The summer slow down, combined with the interest rate increases, has pulled prices back in some cases. But people still need a place to live, right? So guess what’s popped off? The rental market.

So while some prices are down, they’ve created the perfect storm for savvy investors who capitalize on these rare cashflow opportunities in urban Toronto communities.

I have this assignment in the Canary District that we couldn’t sell (we wanted a high price). It closes on the 14th, so while we’re getting financing sorted out,
I found a tenant that’s willing to pay $4250/mth plus utilities for a 1085sqft two bed plus den (see it here)

We just sent notice to another tenant client of ours increasing their rent from $2500mth to $3500mth—that shift in just one year.

The rental market is insane right now.

So if you’re a landlord who owns property, especially properties built or made available for residential occupancy for the first time ever as of November 2018, you’d better be sending those N2 notices.
If you’re not, you’re leaving a ton of money on the table.

If you’re rent-controlled, you can increase by 2.5% in 2023, so make sure to do that on October 1st, so the increase takes effect on Jan 1st.

These small increases aren’t much, but compounded, they can save the day a decade from now. Reach out if you have any landlord/tenant questions.
Happy to help.

Switching gears to Sellers.

Honestly, don’t go to market if you don’t absolutely have to.

If you’re on the market, the good news is that supply has pulled back in every single community we’re tracking (numbers below), and serious buyers are out there, but you’d better make sure you’re either the best product on the market, or you’re the best-priced product on the market. There’s no in-between.

Turn off the noise for the next few weeks, would ya?
Enjoy your summer and do all the buying you can afford to do.

Turn off that day-trading mindset when talking real estate, and let’s look at the numbers. If they make sense for you today, there’s no reason to sit on the sidelines.

Have a terrific Tuesday, and I’ll see you next week 🙂

Have a wonderful day, and don’t forget to share this. We have over 42,000 subscribers, and the list keeps growing. Thank you for that!

Don’t forget to follow us on Instagram and Facebook.

That’s all for today; thanks so much for your energy and attention. If you want some clarity on the market and your specific situation, please DM, comment below or email Ara@thespringteam.ca.

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,634,336
House Median Price: $1,450,000
583 Active Listings
53 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.77
Average Days on Market ~ 13.62

Condo Average Price: $863,665
Condo Median Price: $761,000
1837 Active Listings
90 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.16
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 20.80

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $2,933,750
House Median Price: $2,900,000
144 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.30
Average Days on Market ~ 14

Condo Average Price: $1,505,908
Condo Median Price: $1,430,000
212 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.43
Average Days on Market ~ 24.91

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,309,663
House Median Price: $2,375,000
50 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.46
Average Days on Market ~ 13.66

Condo Average Price: $764,500
Condo Median Price: $717,500
178 Active Listings
6 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.53
Average Days on Market ~ 15.83

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,457,518
House Median Price: $1,212,554
30 Active Listings
6 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.50
Average Days on Market ~ 18.66

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,277,769
House Median Price: $1,245,000
93 Active Listings
13 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.82
Average Days on Market ~ 8.3

Condo Average Price: $890,000
Condo Median Price: $890,000
60 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.05
Average Days on Market ~ 10.8 DoM

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