Insider analysis of downtown Toronto’s real estate trends based on five years of weekly price and volume data

I’ve been tracking weekly sales data in Toronto’s downtown core since March 2020, monitoring what happened across the C01, C02, C08, E01, E02, W01, and W02 MLS districts. After five years of collecting this data through one of the most volatile periods in real estate history, here’s what the numbers tell us about the current state of the market.

The True Story of Toronto’s Housing Cycle During Crises

While average prices can be skewed by a handful of luxury sales, median prices give us a more accurate picture of what’s happening in the market. The data reveals a fascinating story:

Houses (Freehold Properties):

• Pandemic start (March 2020): Median price of $1.3 million
• Peak price (January 2022): $1.85 million
• Current median price: Has stabilized around $1.36 million
• Overall growth since 2020: +4.8%

Condos:

• Pandemic start (March 2020): Median price of $675,000
• Peak price (February 2022): $823,500
• Low point (December 2021): $574,000
• Current median price: Has stabilized around $717,500
• Overall pattern since 2020: +6.3% growth over the five-year period

This data contradicts the “real estate always goes up” narrative…well, short term anyway. I don’t think any reasonable person thinks real estate goes up and never down. Long term, real estate has proven to be an effective investment vehicle. What we’ve seen is a market cycle where prices surged during 2021, peaked in early 2022, corrected through 2022-2023, and have since stabilized at levels slightly above pre-pandemic values.

Volume Tells the Full Story

When we look at transaction volumes alongside prices, the picture becomes even clearer:

• 2021 Frenzy: Weekly sales volumes peaked at over 400 transactions during the height of the pandemic buying frenzy. This unprecedented demand drove the significant price increases we saw that year.
• 2022-2023 Pullback: As interest rates began to climb, volumes dropped dramatically, with weekly transactions falling below 100 in late 2022 and early 2023. This coincided precisely with the price corrections we observed.
• Current State: While transactions have recovered from their 2023 lows, they remain well below the 2021 peak, stabilizing around 150-200 weekly sales. This more sustainable pace of sales aligns with the price stabilization we’re seeing.

The volume data confirms what we suspected: the 2021-early 2022 market was an unsustainable anomaly driven by record-low interest rates and pandemic-related lifestyle changes, not a new normal.

The Tale of Two Markets: Freeholds vs. Condos

Our data clearly shows that Toronto has evolved into two distinct markets with very different dynamics:

Freehold Market (Detached, Semi-Detached, Row Townhouses)

• Days on Market (DOM) consistently remain low, even during market slowdowns
• Sale-to-list price ratios are higher, with semi-detached homes commanding the highest premium (111% of asking price on average)
• Limited inventory keeps competition high, particularly for semi-detached properties
• Price correction during 2022-2023 was relatively mild compared to historical corrections

Condo Market

• Supply consistently outpaces demand (high active listings, lower sales volume)
• DOM has been increasing steadily since 2023, reaching multi-year highs in early 2025
• New listings don’t translate proportionally into sales
• Price stability has been surprisingly strong despite the supply-demand imbalance

The most interesting insight? Condo townhouses behave more like freeholds than apartments, with lower DOM and higher sale-to-list price ratios, making them an underappreciated middle ground for buyers.

Year-by-Year Breakdown: What Really Happened

2021: The Boom Year

• House prices: +10.5% year-over-year
• Condo prices: +5.2% year-over-year
• Transaction volume: Peaked at 400+ weekly sales
• Active listings: Reached 3,000+ for condos but were quickly absorbed
• Driving factors: Record-low interest rates, pandemic lifestyle changes, FOMO

2022: The Peak and Initial Correction

• House prices: Effectively flat (0.0% year-over-year)
• Condo prices: +3.5% year-over-year
• Transaction volume: Steady decline throughout the year
• Days on market: Spiked dramatically in Q4
• Driving factors: Interest rate hikes, affordability concerns

2023: The Correction Continues

• House prices: -2.7% year-over-year
• Condo prices: -3.4% year-over-year
• Transaction volume: Hit multi-year lows before beginning recovery
• Active listings: Beginning to accumulate in the condo sector
• Driving factors: Market finding new equilibrium, buyer hesitancy

2024: Stabilization

• House prices: +0.7% year-over-year
• Condo prices: -3.1% year-over-year
• Transaction volume: Moderate but stable
• Days on market: Trending upward, especially for condos
• Driving factors: Adjusted buyer expectations, stabilizing interest rates

2025: Early Indicators

• House prices: -3.2% year-over-year (based on limited data)
• Condo prices: +4.3% year-over-year (based on limited data)
• Days on market: Reaching new highs for condos (approaching 50 days)
• Driving factors: Potential interest rate cuts, increased condo demand

What’s remarkable is how quickly this market cycle played out. Historically, real estate cycles take 5-7 years to complete, but the rapid interest rate increases compressed this cycle into roughly 24 months.

Six Hidden Patterns in the Market Data

After analyzing five years of weekly data, we’ve identified several patterns that most market observers miss:

1. The “December-January Recovery” Phenomenon

Our data shows DOM consistently spikes in late fall (October-November) and then drops sharply in January-February. This creates a hidden window of opportunity for buyers who act during what most people assume is a “slow” winter market. Motivated sellers who didn’t sell in the fall typically relist in January with more realistic pricing.

2. Semi-Detached Homes: The Most Competitive Segment

While most market watchers focus on detached houses and condos, semi-detached properties consistently sell for the highest percentage over asking (111% on average). This middle ground—offering more space than a condo but at greater affordability than detached homes—attracts the most intense bidding wars due to extremely tight inventory.

3. The Condo Supply-Demand Mismatch

The charts reveal that condo listings surge periodically, but sales volume doesn’t match. This contradicts the conventional wisdom that “if listings go up, sales go up.” Instead, it suggests buyer fatigue and price resistance in the condo market, with many owners listing but not selling, instead choosing to rent or hold out for better conditions.

4. Freehold Properties’ Durability

Even during the worst market conditions of 2022-2023, freehold properties still sold relatively quickly compared to condos. This reinforces that true demand exists for low-rise homes even when the market corrects, making them more resistant to external economic shocks.

5. The Spring Price Premium

Every year, median sale prices peak around March-April, confirming that the spring market advantage for sellers is real. The data shows properties listed in spring command approximately 15-20% higher prices than those listed in winter months—a systematic pattern that savvy buyers and sellers can leverage for timing the market.

6. The Condo Townhouse Sweet Spot

Our data shows condo townhouses behave closer to freeholds than to condos in terms of demand and pricing. Despite lower sales volume than condo apartments, they have shorter DOM and higher sale-to-list price ratios, making them an underrated alternative for buyers seeking more space without the full cost of a freehold.

Seasonal Patterns: Timing Matters More Than Ever

Our data shows clear seasonal patterns that smart buyers and sellers can leverage:

Best Months for Buyers (Lowest Median Prices):

1. December: $1,308,000 median house price
2. November: $1,336,250 median house price
3. August: $1,357,000 median house price

Best Months for Sellers (Highest Median Prices):

1. May: $1,675,000 median house price
2. February: $1,501,018 median house price
3. April: $1,500,000 median house price

These patterns have been remarkably consistent year after year, even through pandemic disruptions. The “spring market” advantage for sellers is real, with a roughly 15-20% price premium compared to winter months.

The Affordability Equation

The median price-to-income ratios tell a sobering story:

Year	House Price-to-Income Ratio	Condo Price-to-Income Ratio
2020	15.3	7.9
2021	16.6	8.2
2022	16.2	8.3
2023	15.5	7.9
2024	15.3	7.5
2025 (est.)	14.5	7.6

While house price-to-income ratios have improved slightly from their 2021-2022 peak, they remain more than triple what financial advisors consider “healthy” (3-5x income).

This explains why most downtown buyers are either:

1. Moving up from existing properties with substantial equity
2. Receiving significant family financial support
3. Purchasing with partners or in co-ownership arrangements

First-time buyers without these advantages are increasingly priced out of houses and pushed toward condos or the outer suburbs.

What This Means For Buyers and Sellers in 2025

For Buyers:

1. Timing is Everything: Our data shows that buying in December can save you approximately $367,000 compared to buying the same property in May. If you have flexibility on timing, this is a significant advantage.
2. The Volume-Price Relationship: The current transaction volume suggests a balanced market. When weekly sales drop below 150 consistently, that’s historically been a sign of further price softening.
3. The January Opportunity Window: Consider the “December-January Recovery” phenomenon—properties listed in January often come from motivated sellers who didn’t sell in the fall and have adjusted their pricing expectations.
4. Property Type Strategy: If you’re priced out of detached homes, consider condo townhouses rather than apartments. They perform more like freeholds but at lower price points, with better value retention.
5. Condo Negotiation Power: The growing Days on Market for condos (approaching 50 days in early 2025) suggests buyers have increased negotiating power in this segment. Don’t be afraid to make offers below asking, especially for units that have been listed for over 30 days.

For Sellers:

1. Price Strategically: The days of setting aspirational prices are over. Properties priced at current market value are selling, while overpriced listings stagnate and eventually sell for less.
2. Timing Matters More Than Ever: Listing in February-May historically yields both higher prices and faster sales due to increased buyer activity.
3. Property Type Considerations: If you own a semi-detached home, you’re in the strongest position—they consistently sell for the highest percentage over asking due to intense competition and limited supply.
4. Days on Market are Increasing: With transaction volumes lower than during the pandemic peak, properties are taking longer to sell. Expect 30-45 days on market rather than the 7-14 days seen in 2021.
5. Presentation is Critical: In a market with more moderate volume, buyers can afford to be selective. Professional photography, staging, and addressing obvious deficiencies are now requirements, not options.

Looking Forward

Toronto’s downtown market has completed a full cycle since the pandemic began. After the unsustainable surge in 2021-early 2022, we’ve returned to a more balanced market with moderate growth.

The combination of price and volume data tells us we’re in a mature market phase – not crashing, not booming, but finding a sustainable equilibrium. For buyers thinking long-term, today’s conditions present an opportunity to enter the market without the frenzied competition of 2021. For sellers, understanding that we’re not in a seller’s market anymore is crucial to achieving a successful outcome.

At The Spring Team, we’re focused on translating this data into actionable insights for each client’s specific situation. The market doesn’t define your decision—it simply provides the context in which smart decisions can be made.

Looking to discuss how these market trends impact your specific situation? Let’s have a conversation.

 

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