[Real Data] Ben Myers Explains the State of the Toronto Real Estate Market Better than Anyone Ever Has.
Want to understand the Toronto Real Estate Market?
Ben Myers of Bullpen Consulting dropped some serious data in an epic Twitter thread yesterday that I was compelled to share with you. Ben started off by asking three very important questions.
Questions that have many ‘answers’ floating around in the ether but most are incorrect, myths or flat out lies. Data so powerful that even Garth Turner might start to come around.
I’d like to note that none of the following work is mine. All words and data come from Ben Myers at bullpen consulting. Please follow Ben Myers on Twitter and check in with him at Bullpen Consulting to connect with him.
You can read the thread directly on twitter or continue below.
We’re building a lot of housing, so we must be building enough housing. True?
We’re in a building boom and prices are still going up, so supply must not be the answer. True?
We’re building more housing in the Toronto CMA (Census Metropolitan Area). True?
Chances are you’re never going to change your mind as it relates to the first two questions, you have your priors and nothing I say or anyone else says is going to change that. Data be damned, it just feels like it!
However, I just wanted to comment on #3 in the above. Between 1990 and 2019, the Toronto CMA has built just under 32,000 new housing units on average per year based on completions data from CMHC. The CMA has topped that long-run average in 4 of the last 5 years.





The “we’re building more than we ever have” crowd is IGNORANT and doesn’t look deeper than the most superficial data in the market: CRANES! Between 2002 and 2006, Toronto CMA developers built 82.7 million sf of new housing on average. Between 2015 and 2019, developers built 55.6 million sf, a 33% decline.
Bedrooms built per year, 2002-2006: 130,000.
Bedrooms built per year, 2015-2019: 98,000 – a 25% decline.
We can only ask people to sacrifice so much space when their families get larger. They will continue to bid up housing that is suitable for them.
And guess what, they’re not going to buy 1,200 sf new condo apartment for $1.5 million that will be completed in 2024. We’ve shifted the market away from new homes on cheaper suburban lands with wood-frame construction to expensive urban lands with concrete construction that takes 3+ years to deliver.
Now that’s the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth!
We’re building less supply and what we are building is much more expensive to deliver. We’d need to build 30% more housing just to catch up to the 2002-2006 level, which probably wasn’t enough at the time either.
We need more housing of all kinds, tenures, sizes, and locations both urban and suburban. Supply is the best long-term solution and always will be.
The worst part about wasting my time on this thread is it will likely get about 3 retweets and some clickbait article on Toronto’s impending crash due to oversupply will get shared 1,000 times. Welcome to the new world we live in.
Well Big Ben…you sir have earned a standing slow clap from me. Friends, fans, and followers I’d like to repeat that all of the above data, work and information came from the mouth of Ben Myers, one of the country’s most intelligent real estate minds. None of this work is mine. I felt it important to share with all of you and did with Ben’s explicit permission.
One last thing: don’t forget to join my digital family (aka my newsletter) here. Don’t worry, I don’t blast my tribe with hard sells.