This week, I wouldn’t get too excited about the slight bump in house supply. We’re still only at 202 houses available for sale (we’d typically be sitting at three times that). Important to notice that the condo supply has never been this low and even pulled back a little. That’s exceptionally surprising.

We’re in an extreme seller’s market when you have 11 offers on a house on Dawes Rd. directly across from a Toronto community housing building.

Who would have ever thought Dawes Rd. would have homes selling for over a million dollars? Well…I guess it was inevitable. As a long-term believer in Toronto real estate, the sky’s the limit.

So when does all of this stop? When do we have enough supply to meet demand? When do buyers get a bit of breathing room?

Excellent questions!

The only question I can answer is the second one.

Toronto will never have enough supply to outbuild demand. It’s impossible, even if you bulldoze the entire greenbelt.

So, can we make Toronto less attractive to buyers? We certainly can, and I’d bet anything that we’re going to have a similar situation to 2017 when the Wynne government announced their Fair Housing Plan and various measures to “cool the market,” which it did.

But, those measures affected the speculator-heavy suburban markets while the urban markets pulled back only a little.

So did that help buyers? No…it didn’t. Look where we are now.

The OFHP essentially halted the market until people figured things out. Then boom. Another boom streak.

The rules and taxes may have changed, but you know what didn’t change? Demand. The demand for Toronto by locals, by immigrants, by everyone.

So, whatever the Federal/Province/Municipalities do to cool the market will not work, as I’ve said repeatedly. Affordability is not a problem that can ever be solved in massive global cities like Toronto.

Every ounce of money and energy should be put to housing the unhoused, and that’s it. Pandering to voters by telling them you’re going to make real estate affordable again is a flat-out lie and does nothing to move the needle forward.

Some have said that interest rates are going to skyrocket. One Facebook commenter said, “I’ll wait till interest rates hit 20% then buy at rock bottom prices” she flat out said this with no irony. I guess that’s a good strategy if you’re ok paying $5000/mth for a $400K place.

So, the Federal government is going to do something. I can feel it in my bones. What? They’ll make an interest rate announcement earlier than expected, do something to “address” the foreign buyer situation, and likely bring back rent control (Doug Ford scrapped that)…or not.

The only thing we can do here is focus on the long term and understand that at every juncture in history, whenever the governments have meddled in real estate, things blipped short term then bounced back with a vengeance.

And during those uncertain times, the urban markets barely pulled back. Not in 2008, not in 2017.

Buying along strong transit lines (Kingston Rd. GO Line as an example or Vaughan) and urban communities will always be a successful bet with a long-term outlook.

I’m putting a call out to condo and house owners. Do you have a condo or house that’s a “little weird” or has some quirks that have made it hard to sell in the past? Now’s the time to get it on the market.

When we have low supply environments like this, houses and condos with quirks that are typically hard to sell are selling quickly and for big money.

We’re currently excited to be selling a great project near the Pickering GO Station…we’ll be buying a unit there. We already have 15 suite requisites from our buyers, so please register for VuPoint Condos here if interested.

Let’s talk!

If you missed my 2022 real estate forecast post, you can catch up on that here.

That’s all for today; thanks so much for your energy and attention. If you want some clarity on the market and your specific situation, please DM, comment below or email Ara@thespringteam.ca.

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,529,954
House Median Price: $1,408,500
202 Active Listings
24 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.43
Average Days on Market ~ 9.88 DoM

Condo Average Price: $821,135
Condo Median Price: $722,000
623 Active Listings
134 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.62
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 21.60

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $2,500,397
House Median Price: $2,650,000
57 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.65
Average Days on Market ~ 29.67 DoM

Condo Average Price: $1,586,750
Condo Median Price: $709,000
107 Active Listings
8 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.05
Average Days on Market ~ 26

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,500.600
House Median Price: $2,150,000
11 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.22
Average Days on Market ~ 10 DoM

Condo Average Price: $758,967
Condo Median Price: $678,888
35 Active Listings
13 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.35
Average Days on Market ~ 16.66 DoM

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,295,034
House Median Price: $1,135,000
7 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.26
Average Days on Market ~ 8.6 DoM

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek (NEW Week 2)
House Average Price: $1,415,561
House Median Price: $1,320,000
34 Active Listing
11 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.32
Average Days on Market ~ 9.72 DoM

Condo Average Price: $482,500
Condo Median Price: $482,500
25 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.39
Average Days on Market ~ 20.4 DoM

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