The 2022 real estate market hasn’t started yet. Omicron has pushed it forward at least until January 17. We hope kids are allowed back in school then. The Kingston Rd. corridor (the new community I’m tracking) did see a decent uptick in supply, but still grossly undersupplied overall.

Luckily, we’re doing what we can to help with the supply issues by bringing six properties to the market in our urban communities over the next couple of weeks, from $1.6 to $5mm.

What’s most surprising is the lack of supply in the condo market. Three weeks in a row, we’ve held at just over 600 listings in an area where we’d have over 1300 (over 2500 this time last year). Condos will get way out of reach for many this year if they wait too long.

We see a massive opportunity to look at developments that have already launched and pick up existing unreleased supply. Email us hello@thespringteam.ca to get a list of supply you don’t have to compete for. Remember, I’m not talking about “deals” here.

Deals pretty much only exist in the assignment market.

So what’s up with the high days on market stat?

You’d think you’d have an extremely low DoM stat in a hot seller’s market. But, what happens in an environment like this is that you have buyers who need a home but can’t find any new supply. So, they’re buying up sitting inventory previously ignored for various reasons.

Either they were over-priced or had other deficiencies buyers weren’t willing to put up with.

Well, not the case anymore.

Even the ugly duckling is getting a ticket to the ball in this market.

Buyers are being all kinds of flexible out there in terms of deficiencies, but make no mistake…buyers aren’t dumb and aren’t overpaying for stuff just because it’s there.

You can get away with a few deficiencies, but overpricing is still the deal killer.

The conversation around interest rates has taken a bit of a break this week, but we did have one lender quietly increase their five-year fixed rate to 3.09% (up 15 bps), so not much, and variable rates are still the way to go.

We don’t expect much ado around interest rates for most of Q1, but the conversation should heat up as we approach the Bank of Canada announcement in April. Before Omicron became such a jerk, we expected April to be the first of two or three increases by the end of 2022, but now expect that to be pushed to Q2.

Either way, if the feds increase rates in April by the expected 25bps, it will have zero impact on the market. And, the same story for when a further increase of 25bps occurs at the end of July.

If you’re a buyer, I will encourage you to stop focusing on real estate as a day trader and look to secure the best family home you possibly can for yourself and hold it for as long as possible.

It does not matter what happens to real estate prices in the short term. (Repeat that phrase in your head over and over again).

Now there’s even more discussion after a CMHC funded think tank (I don’t know why these places exist…) called Generation Squeeze (I’m even annoyed by their name) released a report saying that taxing homes valued at $1mm+ annually would generate a ton of cash for municipalities and make real estate affordable again. (Kind of sounds as ridiculous as the MAGA slogan).

Imagine if all of this effort was put towards providing housing for people that do not have housing. What a wonderful world we’d live in.

The report says, “most Canadians wouldn’t have to pay anything” well, 90% of Torontonians would. And, that’s a problem. An annual tax that you can defer, which most people will do, so it’s not even realized revenue. Such a silly proposal that will not gain any traction.

I’d rather see a slow and steady increase of property taxes in Toronto and 100% of all section 37/45 money going to house the unhoused. If you read my 2022 real estate analysis, you can read more recommendations and realities.

So, buyers need to be quick on their feet (what’s new?), and sellers will be rewarded for going to market right now. There is zero supply in the entry-level luxury market right now, so anything $1.5 to $5mm will sell very well (of course, the lower price points will too, but that’s nothing new).

Anyway…

A silver lining to the start of 2022, though. Did you read all about my efforts to bridge the technology gap? With the help of my fantastic network, I raised $31K in just over two days to help purchase 310 devices to allow kids to participate in online learning.

It goes beyond online learning for me, so I decided to start a charitable organization to make this a long-term project that hopes to help thousands and thousands of kids and families who can’t currently access the internet. The yet-to-be-named organization is going to do amazon things, so stay tuned for that.

If you missed my 2022 real estate forecast post, you can catch up on that here.

That’s all for today; thanks so much for your energy and attention. If you want some clarity on the market and your specific situation, please DM, comment below or email Ara@thespringteam.ca.

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,566,678
House Median Price: $1,422,500
170 Active Listings
16 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.43
Average Days on Market ~ 31 DoM

Condo Average Price: $857,527
Condo Median Price: $710,000
626 Active Listings
67 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.62
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 29.49

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $3,600,000
House Median Price: $3,600,000
50 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.65
Average Days on Market ~ 43 DoM

Condo Average Price: $1,821,667
Condo Median Price: $1,165,000
107 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.05
Average Days on Market ~ 40

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $1,634,900
House Median Price: $1,634,900
9 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.22
Average Days on Market ~ 20 DoM

Condo Average Price: $766,400
Condo Median Price: $795,000
29 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.35
Average Days on Market ~ 16.66 DoM

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,030,000
House Median Price: $1,030,000
8 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.26
Average Days on Market ~ 2 DoM

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek (NEW Week 2)

House Average Price: $1,681,000
House Median Price: $1,625,000
29 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.32
Average Days on Market ~ 15 DoM

Condo Average Price: $603,200
Condo Median Price: $570,000
23 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.39
Average Days on Market ~ 20.4 DoM

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