04 Jan 2022

Episode 96: New listings hit all-time low as buyers scramble to find their next home

This is a crucial week for Toronto real estate. It’ll set the tone for the rest of the quarter…perhaps for the entire year. Note that I’ve added a new area to the end of the article.

I’ve been talking so much about the Kingston Road corridor, from The Bluffs to Port Union that I had to create an entirely new area to track.

I believe that the Kingston Road corridor, from The Beaches right past West Hill into Port Union (and even into west Pickering) will be the best place to invest over the next year onward.

Similar to where Corktown was a decade ago, many segments of Kingston Road have remained untouched and acted more like a flow-through area to other already popular communities…and it’s just now starting to fill in.

When we promoted the Merge project by LFS Developments at Danforth Road and Kingston Road, people thought we were crazy. The buyers who trusted us there have realized six-figure gains in under two years—outpacing many other Toronto communities.

If you’re interested in shorter-term gains, then Kingston Road is where you need to be buying right now. But, of course, we’re proponents of buying and holding, so long term is always the best bet in Toronto and surrounding areas.

First off, if you missed my 2022 real estate forecast post, you can catch up on that here.

Omicron has complicated early 2022 a little.

Usually, many new listings come to market today onward, but as families figure out what they’re going to do with their kids over the next two weeks, the “new inventory” can is kicked down the road.

But, as we’ve seen in past weekly trends, what happens today could be drastically different than what happens a few months from now.

The most important thing is understanding that our urban markets have performed in four to eight-week cycles. It takes up to eight weeks of increasing supply for buyers to notice any changes in their buying experience.

And same goes for sellers…you may be listing, hoping for that HUGE over-the-top offer, but it may not come.

So what’s it like out there now?

Honestly, the stats are unclear, considering this isn’t a typical return to normal we were expecting for January.

There’s barely any new listing inventory, and some buyers are a little uneasy about being out there at the moment, so we’re not going to see a ton of activity.

New sales will, however, support previously set high prices, and once the majority of the population has been exposed to the omicron variant, buying activity will spike and supply won’t be able to catch up.

Prices will most likely spike again towards the end of January into February.

Will we remain in a seller’s market? Will buyers get any relief?

If you want my honest opinion, the answer is…Yes, we’ll remain in a seller’s market for the majority of 2022. Buyers will have moments of opportunity, but only followers of this blog will be alerted to them in real-time. Monthly reporting is nice if you’re not actively in the market, but those actively buying and selling need to follow this blog!

There’s no substitute for real-time reporting in a market like this!

That’s all for today; thanks so much for your energy and attention. If you want some clarity on the market and your specific situation, please DM, comment below or email Ara@thespringteam.ca.

 

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,537,500
House Median Price: $1,387,500
166 Active Listings
6 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.43
Average Days on Market ~ 34 DoM

Condo Average Price: $748,488
Condo Median Price: $697,500
615 Active Listings
42 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.62
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 26.28

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $4,640,000
House Median Price: $4,640,000
52 Active Listings
0 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.65
Average Days on Market ~ 18.41 DoM

Condo Average Price: $764,333
Condo Median Price: $685,000
95 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.05
Average Days on Market ~ 23.33

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,009,800
House Median Price: $2,009,800
9 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.22
Average Days on Market ~ 14 DoM

Condo Average Price: $701,667
Condo Median Price: $730,000
29 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.35
Average Days on Market ~ 38 DoM

 

 

 

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,845,733
House Median Price: $1,750,000
6 Active Listings
0 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.26
Average Days on Market ~ 18.67 DoM

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek (NEW Week 1)
House Average Price: $1,542,500
House Median Price: $1,542,500
19 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.32
Average Days on Market ~ 10.33 DoM

Condo Average Price: $533,333
Condo Median Price: $465,000
13 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.39
Average Days on Market ~ 12.33 DoM

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