Seasonal adjustment aside, let me provide some context.

This time last year, we had just under 2000 condos for sale. So, the argument that “it’s just people taking a break for the holiday” doesn’t hold any weight with me.

We’ve seen week after week of declining inventory for two months now if you’ve been reading this blog. I’ve seen a typical pattern with houses and condos over the past 94 weeks.

Some ask me… “how do you know what will happen in the future?”

Honestly, it’s not magic. When you’ve been tracking the exact statistics for 94 straight weeks (plus 13 years of actually selling real estate), you tend to build up an understanding that your average person doesn’t have.

I can see the numbers and patterns repeating themselves, so it’s easy to see what will happen in the relatively short future. And sometimes, I can see a little further depending on how consistent the trend is, combined with buyer and seller sentiment.

It’s an art, and I’m delighted that you’re reading this. Honestly, this should be required reading for any agent working the urban markets of Toronto.

I used to get ticked off when I would hear an agent in the news using my exact numbers, but now I’m just flattered… more importantly, why aren’t the news outlets speaking to me? I’m terrible at PR… can anyone out there help me with that? I feel like more people need to be reading this.

Enough about how great we are and more about the market.

I’m keeping this short because yesterday’s booster shot is working through my body, and I want to go back to bed.

My comments are mainly for buyers as sellers mostly know what they have. If you need to hear it again, here it is: If you own, do whatever you can to keep your property before moving up to another place. But, if you do need to sell… now is the best time in the history of Toronto real estate to be on the market.

There has never been a better time to be a seller of both houses and condos. Never. Clear?

House sales have decreased dramatically over the past few months only because there’s nothing on the market. Same for condos. We’ve seen sales come down from over 200 units per week to the low to mid 100’s.

Some look at this statistic and say, “we have five months in a row of declining sales, which means the market is slowing” I appreciate the analysis, but that’s wrong. It’s not real.

Sales are dropping because new listings are historically low, and 10 to 57 buyers are going from house to house, hoping their next bid is enough to get them into the market. Ya, I said 57. The same buyers are just moving like a caravan from house to house.

The most frustrating part on the listing side is seeing underrepresented buyers make foolish offers and get their hopes up when they have no chance of winning. I know it’s hard to tell your uncle Larry, who’s been selling real estate since the 70’s to back off, but seriously if you want to be a successful buyer in this market, you must be working with an urban professional who understands the market and has access to off-market properties. There can’t be any compromise here. I’ll even pay uncle Larry to back off. Just let me know.

Anyway, things should inevitably slow down as they always do after a big run like this. When? Historically, these low supply periods have lasted as long as two or three months and then we have a significant spike in supply.

We tend to have much less competition when we spike, but the newly set high prices have always been supported.

So historically, waiting for a better-supplied market hasn’t saved anyone any money but has provided more options for buyers to consider. Make sense?

So if you need to sell, call us right now so we can get started, and if you are a buyer, the same goes for you. You need to be working with the best-trained agents in the industry (hint, that’s us… let us prove it to you).

Assignments are still some of the best deals, so get in touch with us if you’d like a list of available assignments to help cut through some of this competition.

That’s all for today; please DM, comment below, or email Ara@thespringteam.ca if you want some clarity on the market and your specific situation!

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,769,855
House Median Price: $1,494,653
214 Active Listings
40 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.78
Average Days on Market ~ 15.83 DoM

Condo Average Price: $820,594
Condo Median Price: $746,000
864 Active Listings
136 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.06
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 20.85

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $3,150,750
House Median Price: $2,900,000
67 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.14
Average Days on Market ~ 18.41 DoM

Condo Average Price: $1,091,682
Condo Median Price: $952,500
133 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.06
Average Days on Market ~ 43.58 DoM (skewed due to one huge 165 DOM sale)

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,303,250
House Median Price: $2,277,000
14 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.734
Average Days on Market ~ 4.75 DoM

Condo Average Price: $867,567
Condo Median Price: $707,400
45 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.79
Average Days on Market ~ 26.41 DoM

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,362,500
House Median Price: $1,410,000
6 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.46
Average Days on Market ~ 18.67 DoM

Thanks so much for your energy and attention! If you need clarity or want to talk about your specific situation, call/text/email anytime: Ara@thespringteam.ca or 416-434-1511.

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