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Episode 83: House and condo supply up month over month everywhere except Birch Cliff

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
Months of Inventory data (aka MoI) is available. Although the MoI is up month over month, we have week over week declines for the first time in three weeks in urban houses and condos.

What does that signal?

Nothing too dramatic but Buyers shouldn’t be wasting any time making offers. If you miss out on a property today, a similar property sold tomorrow is likely to be a little more expensive so it’s important to not hold anything back at the offer table.

There are some people going on about rising interest rates and saying “see Ara we told you it would happen before 2023” That comment is based on when the Bank of Canada said, earlier during covid, that they had no plans to touch interest rates until late 2022 or early 2023.

Although the Bank of Canada didn’t touch their rates, bond yields inched up to 1.12% resulting in fixed mortgage rates increasing…still historically low and not at all dramatic but they did increase.

Unfortunately, many real estate bears jumped on that news and said “told ya!” well…told me what exactly? Lol.

Many others are going on about inflation…true, when compared to weak numbers a year ago, inflation might seem well above normal but if you adjust for extraordinarily weak markets during the pandemic and compare to Feb 2020 inflation is actually at a normal 2.3%.

I’m no economist but I do understate what Base Effect means so I’ll reserve any comments on inflation until next year’s numbers come out.

Most sellers today should be seeing the offers they expect on their properties with some going way over the top. Both in condos and houses.

AS a seller I”m probably going to under-list my home to entice multiple bids and as a condo seller, our strategy will depend on the building as each one is performing differently.

House Average Price: $1,533,523
House Median Price: $1,559,884
458 Active Listings
112 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.1
Average Days on Market ~ 11.34 DoM

Condo Average Price: $892.189
Condo Median Price: $765,000
1425 Active Listings
171 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.48
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 17.04

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
MoI is up here as well for both condos and houses but so is sales activity so I’d bet we see that number decrease again next month.

Buyers are out in full force buying all the luxury they can get their hands on and supply can barely keep up.

House Average Price: $2,867,386
House Median Price: $2,600,018
132 Active Listings
21 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.68

Condo Average Price: $1,363,333
Condo Median Price: $900,000
244 Active Listings18 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.97

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
Nice to see some new listings added to the mix but sales here have doubled. Not good news for further buyers as this increased inventory is likely to be gobbled up in no time.

We’re seeing big gains in prices here and there is no reason for that to stop as we close out the year,

Homes in Leaside, Davisville and Y&E will be more expensive at the end of the year than they are now so buyers please don’t waste any time.

House Average Price: $2,319,095
House Median Price: $2,588,000
31 Active Listings
13 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.70

Condo Average Price: $819,688
Condo Median Price: $802,500
129 Active Listings
18 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.67

Birch Cliff
The only community with a drop in MoI as sales spike massively here. Only 11 active listings with 7 sales last week, I’d bet we’ll be in a familiar supply crunch as we close out the year.

There’s no real motivation for people to sell here as the homes are big, and you’re close to all the amenities you’d like,

Similar to Leaside.

House Average Price: $1,550,674
House Median Price: $1,435,083
11 Active Listings
7 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.44
Condo Average Price: $780,000
Condo Median Price: $780,000
16 Active Listings
0 Firm Sales This Week
MoI 2.25

Thanks so much for your energy and attention! If you need clarity on any of this or want to talk about your specific situation, then call/text/email anytime: ara@thespringteam.ca or 416-434-1511

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