03 Aug 2021

Episode 74: Toronto’s Urban Condo supply continues to drop as prices get ready to pop…again.

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
Four weeks in a row of declining inventory. Both Houses and Condos, especially, have seen a dramatic drop in the number of available listings.

What does this mean to you? This confirms my previous comments on the direction of the condo market for the upcoming few months.

Condos are about to go on another run, and it doesn’t seem like there’s anything to get in the way. If you’re an active condo buyer, you probably see some more competition out there on in-demand units (if you’re finding anything you like at all)

If you’re a condo owner looking to sell…HOLD…you’ll do much better in the Fall. Unless you need to sell right now, you’re leaving too much meat on the bone.

I’ve had a few comments from readers who seem to be waiting for a significant spike in interest rates because they’re assuming prices will tumble. I appreciate the savviness of trying to time the market, but it just doesn’t work that way. We’re not going to go from where we are now to double digits.

But let’s say we do…let’s say we have a massive spike in rates that destroys the economy. Will you be in a position to buy?

Let’s say a house’s value drops by 50%, but the interest rates increase by 400%…how much do you think your monthly mortgage payment will be? You’d rather have a massive mortgage payment just to say you got a better deal on a house? This logic is flawed and makes no sense…it’s not based in any reality, so please give your heads a shake and come back down to earth!

Rates will increase by the end of 2022. They’ll increase 0.25% at a time. Even for rates to rise to the point Buyers are being stress-tested, we’d have to have eight consecutive 0.25% increases. These increases could happen as quickly as every quarter. That’s over two years.

Toronto is not the US. Our loans are predatory like many were that caused the crash. The majority of Toronto’s homeowners are in good equity positions and have been stress tested. Toronto’s real estate market is strong and will continue to be regardless of what happens in the short term. So go forth and conquer!

People who invest in real estate today will win tomorrow. It’s as simple as that.

House Average Price: $1,479,094
House Median Price: $1,300,000
403 Active Listings
66 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.21
Average Days on Market ~ 13 DoM

Condo Average Price: $788,882
Condo Median Price: $740,000
1373 Active Listings
156 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.65
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 14.72

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
These communities are officially on summer holiday. Only ten sales to report and not much on the upper end other than a couple of stragglers that have been sitting on the market for 60+ days.

We’ve been in touch with many of our local colleagues who tend to do most of the listing in these communities. They do have many properties coming to market..which is a good sign considering we’ve got some of the most significant demand and lowest inventory these communities have ever seen…especially in Leaside and for sultry luxury properties in Rosedale.

Get in touch with us here as we may get some of these Sellers who we know are coming to market to sell now if we can match them with the right buyers and provide a hassle-free path to closing… at the right price of course.

House Average Price: $2,355,490
House Median Price: $2,150,000
96 Active Listings
10 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.77

Condo Average Price: $871,750
Condo Median Price: $887,500
236 Active Listings
10 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.93

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
Same story as Rosedale and area above. So many buyers, so little supply. Imagine an area as large as Leaside to Davisville to Yonge and Eglinton and Leslie to the East with only 28 available houses. 28. That’s it.

Each home listed is getting massive attention and big offers. Expect this to continue into the foreseeable future. There’s no reason for it to stop in the short term. Of course, there will be a time when supply catches up, but that’s not happening this year.

Condos continue to outperform their urban counterparts, with sales and average pricing both slightly increasing this week and going completely against the trend of all other communities. Beginner investors…it’s time to buy Yonge and Eglinton condos.

House Average Price: $2,796,614
House Median Price: $2,832,500
28 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.50

Condo Average Price: $734,100
Condo Median Price: $730,000
140 Active Listings
11 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.47

Birch Cliff
Nothing to report here as there’s been little to no sales activity this week. With only 12 properties on the market and two sales..there’s not much to talk about. We’ll see you next week or perhaps in September when some developers start t list their new builds as they push to finish their product.

House Average Price: $914,000
House Median Price: $914,000
12 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.87

Thanks so much for your energy and attention! If you need clarity on any of this or want to talk about your specific situation, then call/text/email anytime: ara@thespringteam.ca or 416-434-1511

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