First, I’d like to celebrate 100 weeks of reporting. This is the most consistent thing I’ve done in my life, and I am not only proud of myself but honoured that so many of you take in this information to make crucial financial decisions. But, I’m also incredibly honoured that many industry professionals use my data to help their clients make intelligent decisions.

Thank you!

Last week was heavy, so much doom and gloom in the air. Nobody knew what was going to happen with the Federal announcement. Economists were split 50/50 whether there would be an earlier-than-anticipated increase by the Bank of Canada.

January 29, 2022, came and went, and the BoC did, well, nothing. Most expected the BoC to hold the rate. But then, some rogue BMO economists decided to freak everyone out by predicting seven to nine increases this year. Media outlets and blogs ran with that. It created some anxiety in the marketplace, and here we are, on the heels of a non-announcement and back into a fiercely undersupplied market.

And, we’re not even talking about houses anymore. The real story is condos.

Condo supply is at an all-time low in our urban markets and surrounding urban communities. But, don’t get it twisted, so are houses…and that’s nothing new.

That’s why we’re seeing up to 35 offers on a city place condo (I fell asleep at 35, so there may have been more). We’re in an environment right now where every single condo that’s priced well, is move-in ready, and in a desirable community is selling with multiple offers and for more than the previous comparable.

If you’re a condo or house buyer right now, it’s very likely the price you pay will be a new record.

You must be comfortable with that. If you’re not satisfied with that, you need to exit the market until there’s more supply.

Sellers are in complete control of the offer process right now. Condos are seeing a significant upward correction after nearly falling off a cliff in early 2020. But, if you read last week’s post you understand that condos lost value not because of COVID, but because of Airbnb restrictions and a brief moment of panic selling. All buying opportunities in the resale market are wholly gone. By opportunities, I mean perceived deals.

The only deals are in the assignment market right now, and that’s only if you’re cash-heavy. Otherwise, many off-market assignments that are priced well are also getting multiple offers.

So, if you’re a cash-heavy buyer or a first-time buyer with your min down payment saved (with at least 20% cash available), you should be looking at the resale and assignment market.

The pre-construction market is ideal for buyers (end users) who can’t find the right floor plan in the resale market or those that cannot qualify for a mortgage today but will be able to in three to five years when the building is ready. Or for those that need time to save up the 20% down payment.

Pre-con is also a great option to get into a new community with no existing condo inventory, like the first phase of a master-planned community. Galleria on the Park is an excellent example of this, as is Metro Park, Flemington Park’s first (of many) condo developments. Buying at Metro Park is a no-brainer, and I would prioritize this project over all others in Toronto at the moment.

The rental market is another beast that many aren’t yet talking about. If you live in a building that hasn’t been occupied before November 15, 2018, you can expect significant rent increases this year as your units don’t fall under the rent control protections. Doug Ford scrapped that to incentivize developers and individual landlords to better supply the rental market.

So, if you’re a buyer on a limited budget, it’s time to have a frank discussion with your agent, so you’re not out there shooting blanks at properties you have no business offering on. Better yet, make sure you’re working with a local pro who can advise you at this level. If your agent says, “Hey, let’s give it a try, you never know,” you need to fire that agent immediately.

Have a wonderful day, and don’t forget to share this. We have over 42,000 subscribers, and the list keeps growing. Thank you for that!

And, don’t forget to follow us on Instagram and Facebook. We post some real-time stats on our channels you don’t want to miss. You can also catch up on my 2022 real estate forecast post here.

Thanks so much for your energy and attention. If you want some clarity on the market and your specific situation, please DM, comment below or email Ara@thespringteam.ca.

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,737,711
House Median Price: $1,646,250
215 Active Listings
66 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.43
Average Days on Market ~ 9.52 DoM

Condo Average Price: $830,310
Condo Median Price: $740,000
585 Active Listings
218 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.62
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 15.01

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $2,473,282
House Median Price: $2,377,500
59 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week (more than double last week)
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.65
Average Days on Market ~ 29.67 DoM

Condo Average Price: $1,203,867
Condo Median Price: $755,000
109 Active Listings
15 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.05
Average Days on Market ~ 26

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,471,000
House Median Price: $2,471,000
21 Active Listings (nearly doubled week/week)
2 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.22
Average Days on Market ~ 10 DoM

Condo Average Price: $693,250
Condo Median Price: $666,250
33 Active Listings
6 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.35
Average Days on Market ~ 16.66 DoM

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,800,000
House Median Price: $1,800,000
10 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.26
Average Days on Market ~ 8.6 DoM

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek (NEW Week 2)
House Average Price: $1,585,333
House Median Price: $1,380,000
33 Active Listings
9 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.32
Average Days on Market ~ 9.72 DoM

Condo Average Price: $529,800
Condo Median Price: $500,000
20 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.39
Average Days on Market ~ 20.4 DoM

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