06 Sep 2022

Week 131: Where have all the listings gone?

Week 131: Where have all the listings gone?

There has been a consistent pullback in listing supply for two months, with the biggest drop occurring last week.

Over 100 fewer condos are available, and nearly 50 fewer houses.

Looking at Months of Inventory, houses trend towards that dangerous 1 MoI zone (we lived sub 1 month during the peak of the market back in February), so despite rates climbing (and they’re going to go up at least another 0.5% tomorrow), homeowners are doing a great job of cutting out the noise and not panic selling their homes.

Condos are following suit, finally dipping back under 2 MoI (1.78, to be specific).

What does that mean for the market going forward? It means that as interest rates climb and buyers fall off the map, we don’t have the double-edged sword effect with Sellers doubling inventory and wreaking havoc on Toronto home prices (yes, condos are homes too)

Yet another unprecedented (well, unprecedented in current times anyway) event that’s being handled with calmness and rationality by Toronto’s property owners.

I wanted to remind you of all the talk by headline readers regarding the halting of the rate hike cycle: Tomorrow’s announcement may very well bring a halt to these hikes, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a hike tomorrow.

Again, I don’t want to repeat myself, so you can read my commentary on that topic in last week’s report.

(please subscribe to my new YouTube Channel here, where I go over all of these reports in more detail)

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,500,406
House Median Price: $1,300,000
416 Active Listings
31 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.33 (down from 1.54 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 23.63

Condo Average Price: $835,356
Condo Median Price: $692,500
1386 Active Listings
67 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.78 (down from 2.02 last month)
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 21.42

If you know me, you know I’m a natural optimist. So I always see the bright and best side of investments during down markets. There’s no other way to look at it.

But let’s put ourselves in tomorrow’s shoes; what happens after the announcement? Let’s say they increase by 0.75%, and they announce a continuation of the hike cycle.

That will immediately take the wind out of many buyers’ sails and cause a pretty painful news cycle that will inevitably remove a record number of buyers from the market. Albeit temporarily. But pessimists and reporters often forget that the real estate market isn’t the stock market and properties won’t go to zero.

The real sign of what’s to come will be how homeowners handle tomorrow’s news.

Will they panic list? Will they hold tight?

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $2,341,556
House Median Price: $2,200,000
107 Active Listings
9 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.29 (down from 2.40 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 17.67

Condo Average Price: $1,547,000
Condo Median Price: $1,350,000
158 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.12 (down from 2.43 last month)
Average Days on Market ~ 17.4

If the past is any indication, you’ll probably see a flood of new listings hit the market over the next week or so, and then, if the announcement continues the hike cycle, some sellers won’t get the price they want/need, so they’ll pull their listings.

The Fall/Winter season should be fairly slow for Toronto real estate, but that doesn’t mean prices will decrease dramatically.

Perhaps we’ve already seen the bottom of the market?

(continued after chart)

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,485,000
House Median Price: $2,485,000
25 Active Listings
1 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.73 (down from 0.85)
Average Days on Market ~ 2

Condo Average Price: $778,750
Condo Median Price: $723,500
166 Active Listings
4 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.50 (up from 2.38 last mth)
Average Days on Market ~ 31.88

The rental market being as strong as it is, is helping move things along. We’re still renting condos and houses for numbers we have never seen before. These big rental numbers are stabilizing some condo prices and keeping many houses with income-producing second suites at the top of many buyers’ shopping lists.

(continued after chart)

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $901,000
House Median Price: $901,000
32 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.63 (up from 1.52)
Average Days on Market ~ 22

I’ll post a follow-up to this market update after tomorrow’s announcement, so please look out for that

Have a beautiful day and I’ll see you on the blog tomorrow!

(continued below chart)

See you on YouTube!

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,162,222
House Median Price: $1,100,000
68 Active Listings
9 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.35 (down from 1.84)
Average Days on Market ~ 10.44

Condo Average Price: $555,000
Condo Median Price: $555,000
65 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.34 (down from 2.44)
Average Days on Market ~ 19.5

Want to talk about real estate? Let’s do it on YouTube 🙂

(don’t forget to subscribe to my new YouTube Channel here, where I go over all of these reports in more detail)

Have a terrific Tuesday, and I’ll see you next week 🙂

Have a wonderful day, and don’t forget to share this. We have over 42,000 subscribers, and the list keeps growing. Thank you for that!

Don’t forget to follow us on Instagram and Facebook.

That’s all for today; thanks so much for your energy and attention. If you want some clarity on the market and your specific situation, please DM, comment below or email Ara@thespringteam.ca.

Latest Blogs