Extremely low inventory levels are forcing buyers into less than desirable properties. A telltale sign of a heated seller’s market is when buyers start to gobble up sitting inventory that they would have previously passed on.

Houses are literally off to the races like DOGE coin was earlier this year. You’ll have to excuse all my crypto talk… I’m deeply consumed by that world at the moment.

Right now, the gap between the average urban house and the urban condo is nearly 50% (would have been more if we used last week’s numbers). That’s massive. As that gap increases, you’ll find many more people completely priced out of houses and looking to condo land for their next purchase. Or, deciding to continue down the rental path.

Whatever buyers decide, the smartest decision is always to buy. Buy and hold till you’re old and grey then you can pass on the asset to your loved ones or sell it all and live your last days like the kings and queens you are.

Want to wait till things cool down before you buy? Great! Just know that you’re not saving any money by waiting, but perhaps you’ll be up against less competition if the market balances out a little.

Like we spoke about last week, as the market gets better supplied, the new high prices set during the bull run are usually supported but with slightly less competition and a more predictable outcome. This is totally fine as long as you’re not kidding yourself into thinking you’re going to be able to time the market better than someone like me who’s literally in the weeds every single day.

When the pandemic started, I wrote this piece that generated a ton of hate mail… as if I was trying to capitalize on covid. But, if you read it, you’ll see that this big market is something that I saw coming right from the start.

So how low is supply right now? Our urban markets dipped below one month of inventory (MoI for short) for the first time since Q1 of 2021. That’s a significant move as MoI of under one month proves the aggressive sellers’ market we’re seeing out there.

To recap, MoI is the number of months it would take for buyers to absorb all available listings if no new listings came to market. A healthy MoI is two to four months depending on the location and amount of activity.

If you take an average of all of the communities I follow, that puts Toronto’s hottest communities at 1.003 MoI collectively. The most desperate community is Birchcliff with under two weeks of inventory all the way up to two MoI for condos in Rosedale and urban North areas.

So the ONLY deals available to buyers right now are in the assignment world… and those are drying up daily. We just presented an assignment opportunity to buyers at Empire’s Maverick development in Etobicoke. The assignment was listed at $599K and sold for $700K with three offers.

Remember, assignments aren’t on MLS… only word of mouth did this. The listing agent told three people about it and all three made an offer. This is not normal behaviour in the assignment world. But, it speaks to how depleted the market is.

If you’re a condo buyer (both investor or homebuyer aka end-user) you must be working with someone who is tapped into the broker community at the highest possible level (hint, we are) to get you access to these off-market assignments. Many agents don’t understand assignments and steer their clients away from them. Huge mistake. We LOVE assignments and have gotten our buyers the BEST deals possible there.

Get in touch with us (by commenting below, sending us a DM or emailing Ara@thespringteam.ca) if you’d like a list of available assignments to help cut through some of this competition out there.

Also, if you’re a buyer, we’re currently preparing some great listings from $1.6 to $4.25mm so reach out and get in early on those too… if you’re so inclined.

To keep a super long story just long, buyers need to be in the market fully funded and ready to go all in. No question… no hesitation. If a deal is presented, you do not have much time to consider it. Sadly, only an hour or so. I’m not saying this to put undue pressure on you, it’s just a reality of the market. Those who are ready to say yes to the dress quickly win in markets like this.

Sellers, you’re going to get more money than you think for your home and we’ve been proven to beat the industry average over and over again. Anything will sell in this market. Anything. But that doesn’t mean you’re getting max value. Our proprietary Spring Up selling method has helped our sellers’ net max cash by creating homes and moments that buyers couldn’t ignore. Click here to download our Spring Up seller’s guide (we have a buyer’s one too)

Anyway, this market should continue into the new year. But, if you’re working with an agent that still says things like “let’s wait for the spring market” has zero clue what they’re talking about and you should consider a second opinion. But of course, if you’re under a contract with them… we can’t help you till you’re not… know what I’m saying?

That’s all for today, please DM, comment below or reach out in any way if you want some clarity on the market and your specific situation!

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,615,708
House Median Price: $1,482,500
303 Active Listings
58 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.78
Average Days on Market ~ 11.03 DoM

Condo Average Price: $815,946
Condo Median Price: $742,250
1068 Active Listings
140 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.06
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 19.57

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $3,458,000
House Median Price: $2,985,000
90 Active Listings
13 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.14
Average Days on Market ~ 16.15 DoM

Condo Average Price: $1,048,159
Condo Median Price: $830,000
201 Active Listings
13 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.06
Average Days on Market ~ 9.15 DoM

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $1,952,667
House Median Price: $1,900,000
31 Active Listings
11 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.734
Average Days on Market ~ 12.3 DoM

Condo Average Price: $809,612
Condo Median Price: $726,500
66 Active Listings
16 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 0.79
Average Days on Market ~ 15.19 DoM

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,550,000
House Median Price: $1,550,000
11 Active Listings
2 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.46
Average Days on Market ~ 11.5 DoM

Thanks so much for your energy and attention! If you need clarity on any of this or want to talk about your specific situation, then call/text/email anytime: ara@thespringteam.ca or 416-434-1511

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