26 Oct 2021

Episode 86: Seller’s rejoice as inventory drops and sales activity soars, buyers not as excited

Last week’s severe dip in sales activity was nothing more than a lull as people enjoyed the Thanksgiving long weekend combined with a bit of buyer fatigue.

As you can see in the charts below, sales activity is back to normal. But what’s normal? I think we tossed “normal” out the window when Toronto started to level up back in 2016 onward.

I remember selling my house in December of 2015 for $920K. A great townhome on Dundas as Degrassi. It’s in a row of towns, all virtually identical.

Well, three months later, I sold my neighbour’s same townhome for $1,350,000, and the market never looked back. Since then, aside from a slip in 2017, when the liberal government announced its Ontario Fair Housing Plan and the 15% foreign buyer tax, the market has been booming.

We’re talking nearly four years of aggressive growth. We saw condos hit $1000/PSF (from around $600/PSF), we saw our first $2mm house sales and basic semis started to trade over a million in all urban communities.

What caused that? You may think I’m cheeky with this but Toronto being awesome caused that. We’ve never had so many eyeballs on Toronto, ever.

We had a baseball team that was playing better, we had Drake, who was pumping Toronto’s tires every chance he got, we had the Raps winning, we had The Weekend (who’s less of a Toronto champion but from here nonetheless). And so much more world-class talent getting younger eyeballs on Toronto.

Then we, of course, have 4 of the best universities in the World; York, U of T, Ryerson, George Brown College et al.

On top of that, we’re not a one-trick pony. Toronto’s economy is propped up by so many massive industries which attract so many incredible humans. From health care, tech, finance, film and everything in between. Toronto is a hub for all.

The founder of Etherium is from here, and there’s a huge tech community that would rival silicon alley all day long.

Long story short, regardless of what’s happening week over week, month over month year over year… investing in Toronto is an extremely smart long-term decision.

Do you have to pay an extra $10K to get the home you want? Do it because that $10K now will become $100K in a couple of years. I can’t tell you how many people I’ve come across over the years that didn’t want to “overpay” (and let’s get this straight) long-term…there’s no such thing as overpaying.

Right now, the market is in the seller’s favour virtually across the board. Still, when inventory increases and buyers get a shot at the driver’s seat, that doesn’t mean homes will be cheaper, the new high prices will be supported, but there will be less competition on each home.

So whether you pay now, in a bidding war, or pay later as the only offer on the table, the price is not likely to change.

Message us if you need clarity on that. Waiting for the market to “crash” is a terrible idea, and I’ve yet to see someone who’s had the cojones to pull the trigger when the world is melting down around them. Did you buy during the meat of covid when prices were down nearly 30% in some places? Probably not.

Moral of the story? Stop trying to play the market and just get your foot in the door!

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas

House Average Price: $1,616,417
House Median Price: $1,510,000
456 Active Listings
113 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.15
Average Days on Market ~ 8.6 DoM

Condo Average Price: $838,832
Condo Median Price: $732,500
1427 Active Listings
189 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.48
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 15.05

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park

House Average Price: $2,790,377
House Median Price: $2,415,000
119 Active Listings
31 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.68

Condo Average Price: $1,437,000
Condo Median Price: $940,000
238 Active Listings
20 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.97

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton

House Average Price: $2,202,190
House Median Price: $1,950,000
36 Active Listings
14 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.70

Condo Average Price: $704,337
Condo Median Price: $685,000
116 Active Listings
19 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.67

Birch Cliff

House Average Price: $1,539,875
House Median Price: $1,531,000
10 Active Listings
8 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.44

Thanks so much for your energy and attention! If you need clarity on any of this or want to talk about your specific situation, then call/text/email anytime: ara@thespringteam.ca or 416-434-1511

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