Episode 116: Holy shi(f)t! where the market is hot and where it’s not 

This week, the average and median price in the urban market area is down nearly ~ $400K from the peak of February.

Does this mean that properties are trading at $400K less today than in January and February?

No! There could be several reasons for the average price to swing, especially when using small data sets.

So, what’s the difference between then and now?

Great question!

The most significant difference is that new records aren’t being set with every sale. And, many homes that were trading well above comparable prices are back down to earth. Mainly the $900K homes trading at up to $1.2mm. We’re seeing a lot more of that supply trading in the $900’s to low $1m’s, which is a massive relief to buyers out there.

But, those sales aren’t happening with buyers in the driver’s seats.

What if I told you that 70% of the 86 houses sold last week went over asking in multiple offers?

What If I told you that 50.04% of the 133 condos last week were sold over asking in multiple offers?

Would this surprise you, considering what you’re hearing out there?

What if you’re one of those buyers who bought in February and now have a home worth less than it was the day you bought it?

I’d turn around and ask you another question.

What’s the interest rate you got then? Was it lower than the options available today?

How much do you think your property will be worth when you’re ready to sell it?

Urban Toronto is one of the safest real estate investments you can make. Long term, you’ll be just fine and in a better position having bought vs. sitting on the sidelines waiting for the crash that’s not likely to happen.

We all know that real estate doesn’t just continuously shoot up in value week after week, month after month or even year after year.

Of course, growth, like we experienced during COVID, wasn’t sustainable.
Growth like this isn’t supposed to be, but there are too many eyeballs on Toronto for us to become undesirable places to live, work and play.

Now let’s look at supply again.

Downtown condos did add a good chunk of supply and continue to chug towards that 2000 unit mark, which we could hit in July sometime if sellers continue to come to market slowly.

What happens then?

Buyers have way more to choose from, and sales slow down. Do prices come crashing down? No!.

Condo prices seem to be affected when we get over 3000 available listings, which we may not hit during this down cycle. We did previously because of the Airbnb restrictions imposed during covid. So, we shouldn’t have the same listing activity level during this time.

How’s the market right now, and what does it all mean to you?

If you’re a seller, you need to have a long hard discussion with your agent. Underlisting to attract multiple bids and go way over asking may not be the best move for your property. But, you’re still going to get a great number for your home..it just may not be as big a number as a comparable home fetched in January and February.

Some places (both houses and condos) are still quite successful using this strategy.

But, if you don’t need to sell…don’t! Now’s not the time to test the market.
This coming fall market should be a better time for you as listings are likely to dwindle as we head into deep summer.

Buyers, you may be able to take a little more time before you decide on the property you love. The good news is that supply is up dramatically from March and February so you have a ton more choice.

And, prices are even down in some communities. Especially if you’re an entry level buyer. You may be able to snag some of those places that were going north of $1.2mm for closer to a million now.

There’s not much relief for buyers of special properties though. Bully offers, way over asking/market value is still happening every single day so how the market is really depends on what you’re buying and where you’re buying it.

Some markets outside of Toronto, like Oshawa and other similar communities further out, are virtually at a standstill right now while urban communities in and around the core are still on fire in some cases.

Interest rates are climbing, but I’m certain buyers will start to feel better about buying after the next announcement and supply will start to slip again as we head out of the summer.

The same thing happened in the summer of 2020. But, this time we have pending interest rate hikes that are affecting some buyers.

Have a question about something you’ve seen another realtor post? Ask!
I guarantee you there will be more to the story.

Have a wonderful day, and don’t forget to share this. We have over 42,000 subscribers, and the list keeps growing. Thank you for that!

Don’t forget to follow us on Instagram and Facebook. We post some real-time stats on our channels you don’t want to miss. You can also catch up on my 2022 real estate forecast post here.

And, please find me on Twitter as I’ve been more active there these days.

That’s all for today; thanks so much for your energy and attention. If you want some clarity on the market and your specific situation, please DM, comment below or email Ara@thespringteam.ca.

Urban Markets: Downtown & Surrounding Areas
House Average Price: $1,679,853
House Median Price: $1,508,500
528 Active Listings
86 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.4
Average Days on Market ~ 10.78 DoM

Condo Average Price: $880,085
Condo Median Price: $786,500
1665 Active Listings
133 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.62
Average Days on Market (DOM) ~ 15.49

Urban North: Rosedale, Deer Park, Moore Park, Forest Hill, & Lawrence Park
House Average Price: $3,674,889
House Median Price: $3,050,500
128 Active Listings
18 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.81
Average Days on Market ~ 11.05 DoM

Condo Average Price: $1,181,893
Condo Median Price: $1,112,000
208 Active Listings
15 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 2.12
Average Days on Market ~ 18.94

Leaside, Davisville, Yonge & Eglinton
House Average Price: $2,396,048
House Median Price: $2,525,000
42 Active Listings
11 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.87
Average Days on Market ~ 10,72 DoM

Condo Average Price: $901,209
Condo Median Price: $789,000
147 Active Listings
14 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.75
Average Days on Market ~ 14 DoM

Birch Cliff
House Average Price: $1,597,400
House Median Price: $1,312,000
26 Active Listings
5 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 0.98
Average Days on Market ~ 8 DoM

Kingston Rd Corridor to Highland Creek
House Average Price: $1,223,941
House Median Price: $1,075,893
79 Active Listings
12 Firm Sales This Week
Months of Inventory (MoI) ~ 1.25
Average Days on Market ~ 7,16 DoM

Condo Average Price: $586,333
Condo Median Price: $560,000
48 Active Listings
3 Firm Sales This Week
MoI ~ 1.16
Average Days on Market ~ 12.333 DoM

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