How are you all holding up? I sympathize with any of you whom have more than one child to keep busy during this time. My 3.5yr old is definitely keeping us on our toes!
Ok, let’s get started with some context for you: The numbers I speak of in this email and in any other communication you ever receive from me will be for Toronto’s urban communities only. Look at the image below to see a map of the areas I’m consistently looking at. All media outlets will report either GTA Or National data. That’s meaningless to you, the urban dweller/investor/buyer or enthusiast.
[๐ฉ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ผ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ผ๐] ๐๐'๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ด ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐'๐บ ๐๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฒ.๐ Houses continue to out perform condos in our urban communities with 30 sales and another up-tic in sale price to an average of $1,327,310. That's up 7.2% week over week. ๐Buyer confidence is still relatively strong with more and more of my buyers resurfacing from their hibernation and are actively (and safely) all-in on their home hunt. ๐ด๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐๐๐ฉ๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ฃ๐๐ ๐'๐ข ๐จ๐๐๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฃ๐ค๐ฌ ๐๐จ ๐ฉ๐๐๐ฉ ๐ฉ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ค๐ฅ๐ก๐ ๐๐ฃ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ข๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฉ ๐ฉ๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐ง๐๐ฃ'๐ฉ ๐ช๐ฃ๐๐๐ง ๐ฅ๐ง๐๐จ๐จ๐ช๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐ค ๐๐ช๐ฎ. ๐๐๐๐ฎ'๐ง๐ ๐ฉ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ก๐๐ฃ๐๐ก๐ฎ.๐The luxury market in both houses and condos seem to have shown improvement for two weeks in a row with a number of $2M+ house sales and now 5 $1M condo sales. โ๏ธI see these numbers holding as we head into the first few weeks of spring. Job losses haven't affected as many folks in the position to buy yet as it has those in the rental market. We'll have to wait and see how the Government handles re-integrating humans into public spaces to see how many more high paying jobs can be saved/lost. ๐ข๐พ๐ค๐ฃ๐๐ค๐จ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐ฉ๐๐ 2๐ฃ๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฃ ๐ข๐ฎ ๐ก๐๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ข๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐ง๐๐๐ก๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ก๐๐จ๐จ ๐ค๐ง ๐จ๐๐ข๐ ๐ฃ๐ช๐ข๐๐๐ง ๐ค๐ ๐จ๐๐ก๐๐จ ๐ฉ๐๐๐ฃ ๐๐ค๐ช๐จ๐๐จ. 30 ๐๐ค๐ช๐จ๐๐จ ๐จ๐ค๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐จ. 30 ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐๐ค๐จ. ๐๐๐๐ฉ'๐จ ๐ ๐จ๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐๐๐ฃ๐ฉ ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ฉ ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐จ๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐จ๐๐๐๐ง ๐ซ๐ค๐ก๐ช๐ข๐ ๐ค๐ ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐๐ค๐จ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐จ๐๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐จ. ๐๐ค๐ช๐จ๐๐จ.๐ฅ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ญ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ญ๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ๐ผ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ด๐ญ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ๐๐The one bright spot for first time buyers is that the entry level price seems to have pulled back a little with more $400K-$600K options available with less competition (๐ฆ๐ด๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ๐ญ๐บ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ด๐ด๐ช๐จ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ฎ๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต…๐ฐ๐ฉ ๐ฎ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ฐ ๐ฎ๐ข๐ฏ๐บ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ๐ด ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ด๐ด๐ช๐จ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ฎ๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต ๐ณ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ธ)๐13 of the 30 House sales and 7 of the 30 Condos went into multiples ultimately going over asking (๐ญ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ต ๐ฎ๐บ ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ด๐ต ๐ง๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฎ ๐ข ๐ค๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ข๐บ๐ด ๐ข๐จ๐ฐ ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ข ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ ๐ฆ๐น๐ข๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ฆ).๐ด๐ฆ๐ผ ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐น๐ฒ๐'๐ ๐พ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ธ๐น๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ธ ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฎ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐๐๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐'๐ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฑ. ๐๐'๐ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ ๐ข๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐.That looks at the number of new listings available vs how quickly properties are getting absorbed or sold firm in a month. Experts have decided that a healthy MOI ranges from 3-6 months of supply. That's a pretty broad range but to put it into perspective, Toronto's urban communities have been holding at under a 2mth supply for a long time. Tight Seller's market. โ๏ธ๐๐๐๐๐ฉ ๐ฃ๐ค๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐๐ค๐ช๐จ๐๐จ ๐จ๐๐ฉ๐จ ๐๐ฉ 2.5 ๐ข๐ค๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐จ. 296 ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ก๐ ๐ก๐๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ฃ๐๐จ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐จ๐๐ก๐ (๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ค๐ช๐ฉ ๐จ๐ค๐ก๐ ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐๐ก ๐๐ค๐ข๐๐จ) ๐ฌ๐๐ฉ๐ 118 ๐จ๐๐ก๐๐จ ๐๐ฃ ๐ผ๐ฅ๐ง๐๐ก (๐ฉ๐๐๐ฉ ๐๐ค๐ ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ก ๐๐๐ฉ๐ช๐๐ก๐ก๐ฎ ๐๐๐๐ง๐๐๐จ๐ ๐๐จ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐ก๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐๐ฎ๐จ ๐ค๐ ๐ผ๐ฅ๐ง๐๐ก ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ก ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐ ๐๐ค๐ช๐ฅ๐ก๐ ๐๐ค๐ฏ๐๐ฃ ๐ข๐ค๐ง๐ ๐จ๐๐ก๐๐จ). Still a seller's market in most communities/streets. ๐๐๐ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐๐ค๐จ ๐๐จ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ฃ๐ฉ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ค๐ง๐ฎ ๐๐ช๐ฉ ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ฉ ๐๐จ ๐ง๐๐ฆ๐ช๐๐ง๐๐. ๐๐ค๐ค๐ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐ฉ ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐๐จ๐ ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ฉ๐จ ๐ฌ๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐ ๐พ๐๐๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ค๐ ๐ค๐ 6.5 ๐ข๐ค๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐จ. In other words, 995 active listings being absorbed at a rate of 152 sales per month. On the surface that seems like a great Buyer's market with opportunities galore. However there are many buildings with a high concentration of listings as some investors who have relied on airbnb sales are selling. There aren't "across the board deals" available in condos but some opportunities do exist in specific buildings but as I said before, the best opportunities exist in the off-market assignments. Comment below for more context if anything is confusing. DM if you're too shy ๐ You can always text me 416-434-1511 or whatsapp. The Spring Team at Property.ca
Here’s how Condos and Houses Performed last week: April 19th to the 25th
Houses continue to out-perform condos in our urban communities with 30 sales and an up-tic in average price to $1,327,310. That’s up 7.2% over the previous week.
Buyer confidence has once again improved with many of my buyer clients getting back in touch to continue their property search. Of course I’ve checked in with dozens of other local brokers whom have all confirmed the same thing.
The greatest difference I’m seeing now is that there are people in the market that aren’t under pressure to buy. They’re there willingly
The luxury market in both houses and condos seem to have shown improvement for two weeks in a row now with a number of $2M+ house sales and five $1M+ condo sales. Three weeks ago there were none.
I see these numbers holding as we head into the first few weeks of spring. Job losses haven’t yet affected as many folks in the position to buy. People in the rental market seem to have been hit the hardest.
We’ll have to wait and see how the various levels of Government handle re-integrating humans into public spaces to see how many more high paying jobs can be saved.
Condos for the 2nd week in my lifetime have realized less or the same number of sales than houses. 30 houses sold vs. 30 condos sold. That’s a significant stat considering the sheer volume of condos available for sale vs. houses.
Remember, Week 1 had 196 condo sales and 81 house sales.
The one bright spot for first time buyers is that the entry level price seems to have pulled back a little with more $400K-$600K options available with less competition. Especially in the Assignment Market. Oh man there are so many deals in the assignment market right now.
Multiple offers are still very much a real thing with one house in Toronto’s East Danforth area receiving 22 offers on Tuesday evening and 12 other houses receiving at least 2 resulting in an over asking sale at pre-covid market value. Condos didn’t preform as well with only 5 of the 30 sales selling with multiple bids.
Here’s a graph I’ve kept going since Week 1 to keep track of average selling price of both houses and condos. As you can see the serious drop in overall volume hasn’t affected prices as much as you’d think. The big drops in average price are largely due to much much less activity in the higher end sales. Most sale prices are in line with pre-covid market value.
Months of Inventory or MoI: Real Estate’s Most Underrated Statistic.
Experts have decided that 3-6 months of supply is a healthy amount depending on the market.
For some context, Toronto’s urban markets have been sitting at around 1 month of supply for houses and condos resulting in an extremely aggressive Seller’s market.
Houses Right now the MoI for Houses is sitting at 2.5 months. There are 296 available listings for sale that are being absorbed at 50% slower than pre-covid at 118 houses/mth. So you can clearly see that the Seller is still in the driver’s seat for most properties.
Condos Condos aren’t performing as well as Houses in this market. We have 995 active listings being absorbed at a rate of 152 units/month. That leaves a 6.5mth supply. But we cannot generally say that all urban condos have Buyers in the driver’s seat.
There are a few buildings in the downtown core that were full of airbnb listings. Those listings have now been put on the market for sale or for long term lease. So there are serious buying opportunities in some downtown buildings but overall the Seller still has some control in the urban communities surrounding the core.
So How’s the Market?
In short, if you own a house in Toronto’s urban communities including the core, then your home is worth pretty much what it was before Covid hit. With some exceptions of course.
If you own a condo in the immediate downtown core then your value may have been affected. If you own a condo in one of Toronto’s urban communities outside of the core, then your property value remains relatively unchanged and is even up in some buildings.
The greatest opportunities exist in off market Assignments and properties that would fall in the luxury category over $2M for houses and over $1M for condos.
I’d love to hear from you if you are sitting on the sidelines deciding what to do. So far I’ve talked most of my clients out of panic selling. Hopefully I can do the same for you. Hold is the name of the game if you’re an owner and BUY is what we’re advising all our investors as there are some opportunities that we’ve sniffed out.
Call/Email/Text me anytime: Ara 416-434-1511
Check out the best assignment deal available in the Canary District. This uber flexible 2 bed 2 bath with one parking space and two lockers is the best deal available downtown right now. With 754sqft of living space and a bright south exposure priced at $980/PSF. Have an immersive walk through via the link (click image or here) and let me know if you’d like to talk about it. Read More on TheSpringTeam Blog! There more than just Covid news here…promise!
I sell real estate for a living but my PURPOSE is to help people make smart real estate decisions for their families and help build generational wealth for my investor clients. Sometimes that means NOT selling your house or NOT buying. Having that discussion first helps us start with a strong foundation.
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